Russia will exploit tension but will not encourage war

Significance

Russia maintains a delicate balance in the Middle East, preserving a close relationship with Shia-majority Iran and a security presence in neighbouring Syria while seeking stronger diplomatic and economic ties with rival Sunni-majority Gulf states. Although Moscow has moved closer to Tehran since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it is wary of upsetting relations with its other partners in the region.

Impacts

• Russia will continue to call for a calming of tensions and focus on diplomatic resolutions to Israel’s conflict with Palestine and Iran.
• Russian military and diplomatic support for Iran will endure, but not to the detriment of Moscow’s other regional relationships.
• Moscow will exploit anger at Western states’ involvement in the Middle East and seek to increase its status as a reliable interlocutor.