Nigeria separatists may struggle to rebound

Significance

Kanu was in 2021 forcibly extradited by Nigerian intelligence operatives from Kenya and faces charges on seven terrorism counts. Kanu is currently held in pre-trial detention by the secret police where he has complained of ill treatment and declining health.

Impacts

• The reduced role of secessionist activism will have little impact on inter-ethnic violence in other parts of the country.
• Kanu’s eventual trial, should it occur, could offer IPOB an opportunity for political mobilisation.
• Despite Igboho’s October 2023 release from prison in neighbouring Benin, he may struggle to rebuild influence.
• Faltering separatist mobilisation could be reversed by execessive security force crackdowns.