Perceptions of climate change and water availability in the Mediterranean tourist sector: A case study of the Muga River basin (Girona, Spain)

1. Introduction

Climate change represents a major environmental challenge. Data and projections from all levels indicate that climate change will have a major impact on, practically, all sectors of the economy, including the tourist industry. The Mediterranean basin, together with other leading tourist destinations, is likely to be among the most seriously affected areas (Perry, 2006; Rutty and Scott, 2010; Estrela et al., 2012; March et al., 2014; Roson and Sartori, 2014; Klontza et al., 2016). Effects could change holiday destination choices and demand, with the Mediterranean losing out to other destinations with more desirable or stable climate conditions (Gössling et al., 2006; Rutty and Scott, 2010; Roson and Sartori, 2014). It is, thus, crucial to take measures to help at-risk destinations prepare for new environmental conditions in which water availability will be an even more critical issue than it is today (Gössling and Hall, 2015).

It is first necessary, however, to know how local stakeholders perceive the effects of climate change and to identify the steps they have taken or would be willing to take to adapt to this changing scenario and mitigate potential effects. Very few studies have performed an in-depth analysis of how the general population or specific sectors of society perceive climate change and its possible effects. A greater understanding of public perceptions is necessary to inform mitigation and adaptation strategies and help stakeholders prepare for the risks (Gómez et al., 2017), including water shortages. The actions taken by different stakeholders, whether now or in the future, will determine whether the effects of climate change are magnified or diminished (Bord et al., 1998).

The main aim of this study was to analyze perceptions of climate change effects among owners and managers of tourist accommodation establishments (hotels, campsites and rural lodgings) in the Muga River basin and determine what countermeasures they have implemented or are planning on implementing. The Muga River basin is located in the extreme north-east of the Iberian Peninsula, in the Mediterranean basin. Regional and local climate projections show rising temperatures and sea levels and more erratic rainfall, leading to an increase in drought frequency and severity. An additional concern is a progressive increase in demand for water, which in the tourist industry peaks in the summer months, when water is scarcest (Third Report on Climate Change in Catalonia, 2016). Water shortage problems have increased in recent years and look set to continue to do so. According to data from the MEDACC Life project on the impacts of climate change on water resources in the Mediterranean Basin, the period between 1970 and 2015 saw a 60 per cent reduction in rainfall during the summer months and a 6.5 per cent overall annual reduction (Pascual et al., 2016). In the same period, the mean flow of the Muga River fell by almost 50 per cent. Projections for 2050 indicate an additional decline of 7.6 per cent in summer rainfall and 20 per cent in mean river flow. Models also forecast an increase in the frequency and intensity of drought periods, particularly between 2021 and 2051, which will increase the risk of forest fires in an area that is already high-risk.

2. Theoretical framework

The need to promote sustainability criteria as a means of ensuring the future of tourism was highlighted during the first world conference on sustainable tourism held in Lanzarote in 1995. This need is even more evident now in view of how changing climate conditions have and will continue to affect tourism. The first studies on climate change mitigation and adaptation measures applied to the tourist industry appeared at the beginning of the twenty-first century and it became increasingly evident to some authors that such measures were essential if tourism was to be sustained (Kaján and Saarinen, 2013).

Studies on public perceptions of climate change started to appear at the end of the 1990s (Bord et al., 1998), but it was not until the early twenty-first century that authors started analyzing how different stakeholders perceived the potential effects of climate change on tourism. This shift is reflected in a literature review by Kaján and Saarinen (2013) on topics such as tourism, climate change and adaptation. Another example is the work of Gössling et al. (2006), who, following interviews with 252 tourists in Zanzibar, found that climate perception was one of the main determinants of choice of holiday destination. Morrison and Pickering (2013), in turn, interviewed government representatives, researchers and local associations in the Australian Alps. Although all the social agents interviewed saw climate change as a reality, their perceptions of potential impacts varied enormously according to their employment and social profile. In 2014, March et al. (2014) published a study on similarities and differences in perceived effects of climate change among people living in the Catalan Pyrenees and in coastal areas of Catalonia and the Balearic Islands. Their findings, based on 906 telephone interviews, showed that those living in the mountains were more aware of and more concerned about the effects.

Studies such as the above have helped to understand climate change perceptions among residents, tourists and tourism stakeholders in different geographic locations. Nevertheless, much of the research from recent years has focused on hotels and on beach and ski resorts. Examples include the work of Hill et al. (2010), who assessed climate change vulnerability in the Swiss Alps; Brouder and Lundmark (2011), who analyzed perceptions among 63 entrepreneurs of the effects and threats of climate change in Northern Sweden; and Paunovic and Jovanovic (2017), who analyzed tourism stakeholder views on efforts to promote sustainable tourism in the German Alps.

This predominance of studies of coastal and ski resorts is understandable, considering that these destinations largely depend on local climate (Gössling et al., 2006) and accordingly are more vulnerable to extreme changes, such as rising sea levels (Buzinde et al., 2010), excessively hot temperatures during the summer (Amelung et al., 2007), more frequent drought periods (Olcina Cantos, 2012) and a loss of snow quality, quantity and the duration during the ski season (Rutty and Scott, 2010). In our review of the literature, we did find a small number of more recent studies focusing on nature-based tourism. Tervo-Kankare (2018), for example, interviewed 19 tourism entrepreneurs in Finland about their views of roles and responsibilities related to climate change adaptation and mitigation measures and factors influencing behaviors and attitudes.

Although the perceived effects of climate change vary from study to study, rising temperatures are nearly also mentioned, although they are perceived very differently depending on where the study is performed. Studies undertaken at seaside resorts, for example, have found that rising temperatures are not necessarily thought to be negative and in some cases are even seen as positive (Moreno, 2010; Moreno and Amelung, 2009). Effects perceived as potentially detrimental to seaside resorts are a loss of natural resources (e.g. water), rising sea levels and a loss of sand (Buzinde et al., 2010). In a study of the impact of climate change on the sustainability of Mediterranean tourism, Perry (2006) analyzed whether rising temperatures could lead to a slump in demand due to a perceived loss of comfort. The author found that this notion of the Mediterranean becoming too hot could lead tourists from northern Europe to stay north, causing a slump in demand for Mediterranean holidays, particularly in the peak summer months. Similar claims were made by Gössling et al. (2006) for Zanzibar and by Rutty and Scott (2010), who tried to determine whether the Mediterranean basin might become too hot to attract tourism in the near future.

Based on interviews with different tourism stakeholders, Becken (2005); Hall (2006) and Valls and Sardá (2009) showed that while there is a general awareness of the potential effects of climate change in the industry, individual stakeholders do not seem to understand how their particular business could be affected. Saarinen and Tervo-Kankare (2006) conducted interviews with nature-based tourism entrepreneurs in Finland and found that while they were all aware of climate change, fewer than half believed that they would be directly affected and as such had no plans to implement countermeasures. Hoy et al. (2011), based on telephone interviews with 59 representatives of downhill skiing areas and winter tourism towns in Saxony, Germany, reported that half of those interviewed did not foresee any negative effects in the coming 15-20 years, although most of them did acknowledge that climate change was one of the most world’s most serious environmental problems. Trawöger (2014) also interviewed local winter tourism stakeholders, including companies and government body representatives, in a mountain resort in the Alps and found that although 83 per cent of the 24 people interviewed recognized that climate change was an issue, only 21 per cent perceived it as a short-term risk and priority. Studies such as those by Scott and Gössling (2015) and Gómez et al. (2017) have found that in tourist establishment, the owners and managers believe that adaptation and mitigation strategies should be implemented by public bodies.

In conclusion, much remains to be learned about climate change perceptions in the tourist industry and about what local stakeholders believe should happen to ensure environmental sustainability and economic viability (Bord et al., 1998; Gómez et al., 2017). In this study, we analyze perceptions of climate change effects and countermeasures among owners and managers of tourist accommodation establishments located in north-east Catalonia, in the Mediterranean basin.

3. Methodology

This study is based on semi-structured interviews with owners and managers of hotels, campsites and rural accommodation properties in the Muga River basin. We first consulted the Catalan Government’s website to determine the number of tourist accommodation establishments in the area (Diputació de Girona, 2017). Once these had been located and characterized, we contacted each establishment by e-mail to inform them about the aim of the study and invite them to participate. Those who agreed were contacted to arrange a face-to-face interview. Those who did not respond to the initial email were gradually contacted by telephone and asked to participate to guarantee a sufficiently representative sample of the different types of establishments and locations. Some of those contacted declined to participate for reasons related to a lack of time or a lack of interest in the topic of the study. A total of 31 owners and managers contacted by email and, in some cases, telephone agreed to participate, thus, ensuring a representative sample. With the 31 interviews, we found that we had reached the theoretical saturation point, which is the point at which no new information or points of view are expressed. The interviews, held on site, were tape-recorded with the consent of the interviewees and lasted for an average of 52 min. They were conducted between May and July and between September and December 2017. They were structured into seven main sections, namely, owner/manager profile; characteristics of establishment; facilities that require water; water consumption and water management systems; identification of water-saving measures, barriers and incentives; water management policies; and perceptions of climate change and adaptation and mitigation measures. The information collected in sections 1, 2 and 7 are relevant to the present study. Of the 31 interviews conducted (Table I), 18 corresponded to hotels (14 owners and 4 managers), 5 to campsites (3 owners and 2 managers) and 8 to rural lodgings (owners in all cases). In the rest of this article, the term manager is used to refer to owners and managers indistinctly.

The audio-recordings of the interviewers were transcribed using EasyTranscript software and the content was then coded and analyzed using computer-assisted qualitative data Analysis software. The content was coded, processed and analyzed using the grounded theory research method, which consists of collecting, coding and categorizing information and then interpreting the results to generate a new theory (Saldaña, 2009).

4. Study area

The case study was conducted in the Muga River basin (Figure 1), which is located in the extreme north-east of the Iberian Peninsula, just south of the French border. The area contains 52 municipalities and covers an approximate surface area of 1,150 km². The basin contains several sub-drainage basins corresponding to the rivers Arnera, Manol, Llobregat d’Empordà, l’Anyet and l’Orlina and the canals Sirvent and Madral. The Boadella reservoir is the main source of water for the villages and towns in the region and it has an important role in regulating the flow of the Muga River. The reservoir was built in 1969 and has a storage capacity of 60.2 hm³. It has been affected by periods of severe drought that have caused conflicts between different sectors that depend on water (agriculture, industry, tourism and natural reserves) (Ventura-Pujolar, 2004).

At the time of the study, the study area had 117 hotels, 14 campsites and 86 rural properties offering a total of 23,055 places. Over 80 per cent of these places were located on or near the coast (Figure 1).

We distinguished between three main geographic areas, namely, the coast, cities and surrounding areas and inland. The coastal area is formed by the towns of Roses, Cadaqués, Llançà and Castelló d’Empúries. It receives the majority of visitors to the area, particularly during the summer months (beach tourists). The cities and surrounding areas mostly receive cultural visitors and business travelers. The two main cities are Figueres, the capital of the region and La Jonquera, a city located on the Spanish-French border. The inland area consisted of inland and mountain villages and towns, most of which have fewer than 1,000 inhabitants. The bulk of inland accommodation establishments were rural properties that were generally much smaller than the hotels and campsites on the coast and in cities (Table II).

Overall, 81 per cent of the beds available in the Muga River basin are located on the coast, 12 per cent inland and just 7 per cent in and around Figueres and La Jonquera (Table II). The city hotels, however, offered almost 15 per cent of all available places. The areas also differed in terms of the type of accommodation available. The bulk of accommodation was offered by hotels and campsites on the coast and by hotels in the cities. The number of beds offered by hotels, campsites and rural lodgings in the inland area was similar (Table II).

Table II shows annual occupancy rates, overnight stays and number of visitors for the entire Alt Empordà region. Although the data are not exact (they correspond to 68 municipalities vs 52 in the Muga River basin), they give a good idea of recent trends in occupancy and demand. In the five years, ranging from 2012 to 2017, there was a progressive and significant increase (of around 20 per cent) in overnight stays, number of visitors and occupancy rates (Table III).

5. Results

6. Discussion

The main findings of this study are consistent with reports from previous studies, although they also provide some novel insights. Most studies, to date, have focused almost exclusively on the hotel sector and on beach and ski resorts. Our study offers a broader perspective, as we examined perceptions of managers of the hotels, campsites and rural lodgings located on the coast, inland and in cities.

The first notable finding is that some of those interviewed believed that climate change might have beneficial effects, as it could extend the tourist season. Specifically, 30 per cent of hotel managers mentioned that rising temperatures could have a positive impact by increasing demand throughout the year. This opinion is reflected in the work of Moreno (2010) and Moreno and Amelung (2009), who found that beach tourists saw hotter weather as something positive and concluded that it could result in longer maximum occupancy periods in coastal regions. In addition, our results show that inland establishment managers seemed to be more aware of and concerned about the potential effects of climate change on tourism. This is probably because their businesses depend on the scenic appeal of the local landscape, unlike those located on the coast, which could, in the opinion of those interviewed, theoretically benefit from hotter temperatures. Nevertheless, a variable proportion of those interviewed (60 per cent of campsite managers, 37 per cent of rural lodging managers and 20 per cent of hotel managers) also recognized that climate change could lead to a reduction in demand and changes in holiday destination choice, supporting previous findings by Gössling et al. (2006) for Zanzibar. The campsite managers, followed by the rural lodging managers, appeared to be most aware that excessively hot, uncomfortable summers could have a negative impact on business. These results coincide with reports by Wall and Badke (1994); Perry (2006); Rutty and Scott (2010) and Roson and Sartori (2014), who concluded that certain leading tourist destinations in the Mediterranean could lose their appeal by becoming too hot, especially during the peak summer months.

Our findings also show that loss of scenic appeal and increased vulnerability and risk of forest fires due to drought were among the main concerns expressed by the campsite and rural lodging managers. This observation coincides with reports by Gómez et al. (2017), in their study of rural tourism in the Empordà region. Loss of scenic appeal was perceived as a real threat to business, unlike rising temperatures, which were seen as less of a risk because most of the establishments’ clients were nature tourists.

Coinciding with previous reports by Saarinen and Tervo-Kankare (2006), another notable finding from our study is that 66.7 per cent of the hotel managers and 40 per cent of the campsite managers either believed that climate change would not have any negative effects on their business or were unable to envisage how it could be affected. This inability to perceive negative effects and lack of awareness were much less common among rural lodging managers, at just above 12 per cent. Similar findings were reported in the study of Tyrolean ski tourism stakeholders by Trawöger (2014), in which 83 per cent of those interviewed perceived climate change as a global problem, but just 21 per cent saw it as a potential short-term problem for their business. Hoy et al. (2011), in their study of ski resorts in six mountain areas in East Germany, also found that approximately 50 per cent of those interviewed did not expect climate change to have a negative impact on the area in the coming 15-20 years, although the majority did acknowledge that climate change was one of the world’s largest problems.

We can, therefore, conclude that perceptions of climate change effects vary significantly according to the type of establishment and location. In our study, those running establishments located on the coast seemed to be more worried about overall effects on the tourist industry, while those in charge of inland properties appeared to be more aware of what climate change might involve.

There was, however, widespread agreement that the government should lead the process required to promote and facilitate water-saving measures and climate change mitigation and adaptation measures in general. This call for government leadership has been echoed in other studies, which, like ours, have found that the vast majority of establishments have received no help, funding or advice on the implementation of mitigation and adaptation measures (Gómez et al., 2017). Dinarès and Saurí (2015) listed a series of strategies that should be promoted at the government level, including software and other tools to help companies develop water adaptation and saving measures, policy incentives and general risk mitigation actions. One problem mentioned by those interviewed was that small- or medium-sized businesses (like those analyzed in this study) do not have the financial means to invest in water-saving measures. Additional problems are a lack of technical know-how or simply a general inability to identify climate change risks. Many establishments, thus, have a low adaptive capacity and as such are particularly vulnerable (Chan, 2011; Kasim et al., 2014) and need support to reduce risks and increase resilience (Scott et al., 2012). This support should largely come from the government, which has the necessary powers and tools. Those interviewed in our study were of the opinion that it would only be possible to reduce water consumption and prevent future shortages if the government led the way. Once this has occurred, businesses and clients should be brought on board, as argued in the World Wildlife Fund (WWT) (2001) report on tourism threats in the Mediterranean in 2001.

Those interviewed were also of the opinion that government authorities were not doing enough to inform about and prepare for the effects of climate change and called for greater levels of commitment and responsibility. Similar findings have been reported by Gómez et al. (2017). None of the managers in our study mentioned any climate change actions taken by the Catalan or Spanish Governments. Perceptions of climate change effects in the tourist sector will change only when the diverse stakeholders involved become truly aware of the potential issues and understand how these could affect tourism and water availability. This increased awareness should lead to a greater recognition of active measures being taken at the government level. Strategies are, thus, required first to increase awareness and then to promote action. None of the establishments analyzed in our study have implemented or are planning on implementing mitigation or adaptation measures and this is probably largely because they are unaware of what is at stake.

7. Conclusions

The first conclusion of our study is that climate change effects are perceived and interpreted differently across the accommodation establishments analyzed in the Muga River basin. First of all, a considerable proportion of those interviewed were of the opinion that climate change could have a negative impact on the area in general. There was also a perception that changes could negatively affect tourism and business, although this was held by fewer managers and most of these were running hotels and coastal businesses.

Those interviewed also expressed different preferences in relation to the promotion and implementation of mitigation and adaptation measures. We identified five manager profiles with different levels of awareness and proactivity in relation to the implementation of countermeasures to mitigate the effects of climate change by the tourist industry in general and their own establishments (Figure 5). The largest group, the climate fatalists, accounted for 46 per cent of those interviewed. They were aware that climate change was inevitable, but did not think that they could or should do anything about this. Some of the members of the group also believed that climate change could increase demand for tourism, particularly in coastal areas where hotter temperatures would attract more tourists throughout the year.

At the other end of the spectrum were the climate pragmatists (19.5 per cent) and realists (2 per cent), who were aware of climate change and its effects and as such were willing to act and apply countermeasures. In between these two positions were the climate deniers (19.5 per cent) and the skeptics (13 per cent), who were not planning on taking action as they were unaware of or did not believe in the negative effects of climate change.

Apart from a loss of scenic appeal due to more frequent and intense drought periods, the hotel, campsite and rural lodging managers interviewed did not seem to be particularly concerned about future water scarcity problems. In brief, we found low levels of knowledge and awareness about how climate change could affect water supplies in the Muga River basin. We believe that this is partly due to the little research that has been done to investigate the association between climate change, water resources and tourism; and partly due to a failure to inform local stakeholders of potential risks. Greater efforts and resources are, thus, needed to promote research, awareness and actions to mitigate water shortages that could directly affect the maintenance, consolidation and improvement of tourism in the area.

The most appealing water-saving measures in the opinion of those interviewed were rainwater collection, gray water recycling and measures that require little investment and technical know-how (e.g. tap aerators, double-flush systems and good-practice campaigns targeting clients and staff). In general, the managers considered that the government should be responsible for implementing more ambitious, costly and sophisticated measures and for dealing with their potential environmental impacts. These measures included, by order of preference, desalinization, opening of new wells and water transfers. Those interviewed also largely agreed that it was the government’s duty to facilitate anticipatory adaptation measures and ensure sustained water supplies for the tourist industry. They did not see tourist establishments or clients as having the same level of responsibility, although they did recognize that both had a role to play and that responsibilities should be shared, albeit not equally.

Although there was a general perception among the accommodation establishment managers that climate change could have serious, worrying consequences, those interviewed did not appear to view these consequences as a threat for their businesses or for local tourism in general.

Finally, our findings clearly show that it is crucial to increase levels of awareness and knowledge of climate change effects among owners and managers of tourist accommodation establishments and to help them see the need for mitigation and adaption measures that will ensure a sustainable use of resources with a particular focus on water-saving measures.