Combining ICT and cognitive science: opportunities and risks

The Authors

N. Malanowski, Senior Scientist, based at the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, European Commission, Seville, Spain.

R. Compañó, Researcher, based at the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, European Commission, Seville, Spain.

Acknowledgements

Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of the following information. The views expressed in this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Commission. The authors would like to thank Marcelino Cabrera and Ioannis Maghiros, IPTS, for comments on a draft of this paper.

Abstract

Purpose – Many experts consider that the technological convergence of previously separated sciences like nanotechnology, biotechnology, information and communication technologies and cognitive sciences, will – in the long term – impact deeply our society and economy. Key actors in society need to become aware of the challenges linked to converging applications (CA) and take some decision related to processes to develop these. It is hoped that analyzing CA-related opportunities and risks at a very early stage will contribute to reduce possible adverse effects in the future. This paper seeks to address this issue.

Design/methodology/approach – The analysis is based upon a literature review, complemented with ten expert interviews carried out over the telephone. The interviewees were natural and social scientists familiar with the topic of converging technologies/applications.

Findings – Setting priorities for discussion on research and strategy within and between the various fields of CA benefits from the early involvement of key stakeholders from the very beginning. Formulating and structuring relevant open questions on opportunities and possible risks of CA helps to contribute to a balanced discussion on opportunities and risks and further work on this topic.

Originality/value – The opportunity and risk analysis is exemplified for four promising areas at the intersection of cognitive science and ICT, namely human brain interfaces; speech recognition technologies; artificial neural networks; and robotics.

Article Type:

Research paper

Keyword(s):

Communication technologies; Society; Europe.

Journal:

foresight

Volume:

9

Number:

3

Year:

2007

pp:

18-29

Copyright ©

Emerald Group Publishing Limited

ISSN:

1463-6689

1. Introduction

This article looks at the possible socio-economic opportunities and risks arising from the new scientific and technological trend of “converging applications” (CA)[1]. Socio-economic issues associated with new technologies often emerge in areas such as “environment”, “health and safety”, “economic aspects”, “policy”, “legal framework” or “ethics”. They relate to user acceptance, economic potential, improvement of quality of life, and also to non-acceptance, misuse, abuse, inherited risks and economic risks.

Quite often societal concerns are polarized into extreme positions. Positive positions like, for instance, the one by the National Science Foundation (NSF) in the US, see converging technologies/applications as a solution for many (societal) problems and dilemmas (Roco and Bainbridge, 2002). They expect much cheaper and cleaner technologies that will lead to improved human health and welfare. They argue that the convergence of technologies and applications will bring rapid improvements to “human performance”. Others, however, stress the possible detrimental effects of converging technologies/applications on health and safety, equity, environment and privacy (Anton et al., 2001). Currently, only a few non-governmental organizations (NGOs), like the Canada-based ETC Group, have expressed a formal position on converging technologies. In the ETC Group's (2003) view, neither governmental programs on converging technologies nor any of the specific projects proposed in the NSF-report should go forward without a previous broad societal consultation.

In 2004, the European Commission published the so-called CTEKS[2] report as a reaction to the report by the NSF and the technology driven discussion in the United States and as a contribution to the debate from a European angle (Nordmann, 2004). It identified four characteristics of converging technologies/applications:

  1. Embeddedness. Converging technologies (CT) will materialize in services and products that can be spatially distributed, pervasive and inconspicuous. The combination of nanotechnology devices with information and communication technologies (ICT) infrastructures (mobile), intelligent actuators and sensors may construct an artificial environment in which CT devices are embedded within the human environment. For instance, CT devices can be taken up in blood vessels and used for microsurgery and communicating and controlling specific human functionalities, as they are almost invisible.
  2. Unlimited reach. The potential of CT devices is almost unlimited and they could be used to enhance human functionalities in ways that were previously impossible. These may relate to internal functionalities (related to the control of specific diseases for instance) but they may relate to external functionalities such as human communication patterns.
  3. Engineering the mind and the body. CT devices may be used in micro-scale engineering, and they may extend its domain from the “traditional” micro-scale engineering such as DNA-replication towards engineering of the mind. The CTEKS report makes a plea for engineering for the mind (and the body), rather than the more threatening engineering of the mind. This clearly indicates the normative challenges that CT will pose for society in the future.
  4. Specificity. The instruments developed at the crossroads of biotechnology, nanotechnology and ICT enable a focused and specific use in, for instance, binding pharmaceuticals to specific DNA-profiles so that unwanted side effects can be avoided.

These four characteristics offer a starting point for a preliminary analysis on opportunities and risks as a broad pilot study. They will be further explored in this essay in relation to other general questions of converging applications (CA) such as:

  1. What are the foreseeable implications of the development of CA, in general, and in terms of user and public acceptance, in particular?
  2. Which tools can be used to improve public participation in decision making relating to the development of CA?
  3. Are there already cases of “acceptance” pitfalls? If yes, how could they be avoided?
  4. What are the main drivers that may influence the evolution of CA? How can societal and economic drivers be kept in balance?

This article aims to:

As CA is a very wide and diffuse field to analyze, the main focus in this article will be on the impact of the convergence of ICT with cognitive science (CS)[3]. Cognitive science was identified in the CTEKS study as an important emerging field of converging technologies/applications. For sake of clarity, this essay will focus to four specific areas at the intersection of cognitive science and ICT, identified by bibliometric research to be major foci of mutual benefit between ICT and CS[4]:

The following analysis is based upon a literature review, complemented with ten expert interviews. The interviews were done by telephone. They lasted between 30 and 60 minutes. The interviewees were natural and social scientists familiar with the topic of converging technologies/applications.

2. Analytical framework

The socio-economic impact of converging applications has many facets. An assessment of the opportunities and the possible risks of converging applications seems to be an indispensable requisite for a subsequent balanced decision making and participation process concerning CA. The assessment should cover issues such as user acceptance, economic and social potential, and improvement of quality of life (opportunities) and also risks such as non-acceptance, misuse, abuse, inherited risks and economic risks.

The “flipside” of opportunities offered by Converging Applications can be differentiated by a range of categories of risk, viz. “inherited” risks, use, misuse and abuse. These risks can be extended by including economic risks and societal risks such as non-acceptance. Inherited risks refer to those that come with each of the converging technologies subfields – for instance, the whole arsenal of risks associated with ICT (from privacy issues to increased technical dependence on appropriate functioning ICT infrastructures). Use, misuse and abuse refer to the fact that use is socially constructed and the technology by itself does not clearly identify the uses that can be made of a specific device. The CTEKS study identifies similar risks.

Seminal papers on broader sociological and economic impact, such as the so-called “risk society” concept (Beck, 1992), relate partly on innovation theories and partly on sociological theories. With regard to innovation (and diffusion), most theories highlight the importance of the interaction between technological trajectories and selection environments (Nelson and Winter, 1982; Hausschildt, 2004: Gerybadze, 2004). They consider that unforeseen and difficult to control elements (for instance public acceptance) within the selection environment may play a crucial role in the development and diffusion of specific technologies. Deployment depends on the nature of the technical innovation (either partial or systemic) together with broader – paradigmatic – shifts in society (Freeman and Perez, 1988). These models, inspired by economics, give rise to interesting theories on the interaction between users and new technologies. Given the convergence of ICT with cognitive science for economic deployment and social change critical appraisal of the socio-economic impact of emerging technologies may benefit from insights offered by more “traditional” ICT-oriented approaches. The sociological theory developed by Ulrich Beck and further elaborated by Beck et al. (1994), points to an unforeseen “bouncing back” effect: unreflective technological progress produces unexpected results (“fruits”) which can hamper scientific knowledge and put unforeseen limitations on the production of new technologies. This approach offers interesting theoretical views, at the more general (macro) level, on the characteristics clearly shown by new technological developments like CA.

These theoretical insights on a macro level are useful in medium or long term in-depth studies and need to be complemented with meso level analysis in which specific societal and economic impact as regards opportunities and risks are identified and assessed by using the concept of innovation and technology analysis (ITA). ITA investigates positive and negative secondary and tertiary effects on societal and economic innovation. It works out – where possible – alternative recommendations for action at the early stages. Its function is not merely raising “prohibition signs”, i.e. presenting “do not” recommendations, but drawing attention to unused potential and suggesting innovative solutions for handling possible risks. ITA has an interdisciplinary orientation. It comprises technological-scientific, ethical, social, legal, economic, ecological, health and political aspects (or in other words: dimensions) in its analyses where necessary (Albertshauser and Malanowski, 2004).

As we have already mentioned, we will focus on the following four selected areas of convergence of ICT with cognitive science: human brain interface, speech recognition, artificial neural networks and robotics. Bearing in mind the fact that these technological areas are in the early stages of development and information on applications is scarce, not every single ITA-dimension can be taken fully into account to structure this new ITA topic. For instance, in all the following cases it was not possible to discuss the ecological dimension due to lack of data. In this article we distinguish between different time horizons. Short- to medium term means up to five years, long-term means between six and ten years.

3. Area A: human brain interface

The brain-machine interface (BMI) is an example of a medium to long-term application field with wide-ranging consequences and a number of concrete challenges. In addition, ethical aspects are very important according to an international study group that developed a roadmap of Neuro-IT development (Knoll and de Kamps, 2006). Recent progress in fundamental neurophysiological research gives the impression that, in the near future, visions from science fiction movies, like implanted electrodes, may become possible (technological-scientific dimension). The human brain could be directly interfaced with computers or embedded in external devices. Information gathering and processing devices could be incorporated in the human body. However, we are still a long way from these applications in real life.

All current prototypes are basically one-directional, generally from the brain to the external environment, with no feedback loops, i.e. two-way information transmission. “For real life applications, like the control of paralyzed limbs or complex prosthetic devices, bi-directional interfacing will be necessary so that the brain can use its sophisticated feedback control strategies” (Knoll and de Kamps, 2006, Chapter 1.6.1). In addition, a number of technological challenges, such as better sensory input or better understanding of neural coding of primary motor regions, have to be solved before this highly invasive technique can be applied to humans.

Bi-directional brain computer interfacing (BBCI) holds great promise in the treatment of neurological and trauma patients (health dimension). Before doing this kind of treatment, it is necessary to identify the exact brain regions for electrodes to use BBCI for specific tasks. Furthermore, real-time encoding/decoding software for brain input/output signals are needed. Further work on improving BBCI techniques, and also alternatives to implanted electrodes, must be done.

As regards the ethical dimension, science, society and business in Europe have to decide what should be done if invasive technology causes brain damage. If it does, would it be acceptable to patients? Would chirurgical interventions be acceptable only to disabled or also to healthy people? When is it acceptable to the public? How could the public/stakeholders be involved in such a discussion? In addition, it may be that brain plasticity interferes with the normal operation of the human brain. These are all open questions to be addressed when shaping this converging technology.

This example of a converging applications could also have a great impact on human society in Europe (social dimension), both at the individual and the collective level. There may also be a clear case of misuse. Mentally upgraded individuals (as shown in some science fiction movies and novels) could theoretically build up new collectivist forms and dominate society. Although this is still only fiction, it might be worth thinking about the legal dimension and European regulatory issues (political dimension) at the very early stages of development in order to avoid controversy similar to the fact that, nowadays it has become hard to hear balanced views on certain issues like green biotechnology. Another interesting question concerning a possible societal pressure is, for instance, under which circumstances disabled people or their healthy peers should have the opportunity to reject using BBCI and to continue live as they did before.

Since interfaces to the human brain are in the very early stages of development, the long-term economic dimension of these converging applications is not clear. A number of scientific, business and social questions are still open and would need to be addressed before assessing the economic impact. They include: Is there a critical mass of scientists and private companies for developing human brain interfaces in Europe? What roles do large companies and SMEs play? What is the economic potential of human brain interfaces and what are the economic risks? What kind of public funding (political dimension) is necessary for the development of applications and products that are competitive on international markets? How could stakeholders be involved in finding a common ground for applications and products that are broadly accepted by the public?

4. Example B: speech recognition

From an economic perspective, speech recognition is very promising since it is a major development in convergence of ICT and cognitive sciences in the short/medium term and has enormous implications for the way we work and live in the future (economic dimension). According to Rabiner (2003), speech recognition aims to accurately and efficiently convert a speech signal into a text message independent of the speaker or the speaking environment. The challenge is to make speech recognition systems robust irrespective of the surrounding acoustics so that they also function well in cars or environments where cellular phones are typically used. A range of signal-processing methods for speech enhancement, noise removal, speaker normalization, and feature normalization have been proposed to solve the problems associated with noisy environments. The key challenge is to develop easy-to-learn interfaces between humans and machines for advanced services that are as simple as voice telephone is today (technological-scientific dimension).

In the next few years, this area of converging applications is expected to play a major role in cars, mobile phones, personal computers, handheld devices and even household equipment, e.g. washing machines. International companies like IBM, Philips or Miele and a number of European SMEs are very active in this field. According to a market prognosis by Frost and Sullivan (quoted in DG Bank, 2001), the market volume for 2006 in speech recognition technology will be $700 million in the US alone and further growth is expected in the following years. The market volume and the growth tendency is about the same (economic dimension). International agreement on standards for software and hardware would be beneficial for rapid deployment and exploitation of this market potential.

Widespread use of speech recognition applications would not only save costs for the businesses concerned but would also have profound implications for the way we work. Speech recognition would make working with personal computers much easier and thus more productive[5]. In addition, the nature of office work could change as certain “simple” and repetitive tasks would be reduced (social dimension). For this reason a discussion on upside (de-skilling of work) and downside (re-skilling of work) adjustment between the stakeholders might be very useful to find new satisfying concepts of work for highly skilled and less skilled workers. Additionally, it is difficult to predict how social life and privacy could change. Abuse or misuse of this converging technology seems possible. Would we have better learning tools by using speech recognition for instance in learning a foreign language in very efficient way? Would everybody – who wants to – have access to such systems (ethical and social dimension)? As regards the political and legal dimensions, how could public authorities support the development of international standards? Furthermore, it could be very important to find new ways in funding basic and application-oriented research on speech recognition.

5. Example C: artificial neural networks

Artificial neural networks could be widely used in industrial applications in the long term (economic dimension). However, according to the roadmap of the international “neuro-IT” network (Knoll and de Kamps, 2006, Chapter 7.5) “in the majority of cases, industrial applications have been very specialized and of limited economic significance. The difficulty of moving from the laboratory into the field is at least partially due to a number of intrinsic weaknesses in current technology, which in many cases coincide with areas where artificial models have little resemblance to natural processes.” Traditional artificial intelligence (AI) applications, such as machine translation, data mining or intelligent software agents, have been far less successful than originally forecasted because of unresolved technological hurdles. To overcome this it will be necessary to make substantial progress in complex algorithms that can emulate human and animal cognitive competencies in artificial neural networks (technological-scientific dimension). There seems to be an increasing perception that established software engineering concepts are not sufficient to overcome these scientific challenges that it would be beneficial to explore the suitability of alternative – but yet less developed – models and methods of evolutionary biology (e.g. gene regulation, and expression in the evolution of novel phenotypes, the roles of gene duplication). Artificial neural networks are based on abstract models of biological neuron and synapse functions. An important aspect is that the artificial neural networks are able to learn and to generalize from what it has learned.

Future applications and products (economic dimension) could, for instance, be “elastic” designs for autonomic robots (see also example D: Robotics), highly flexible software for pattern recognition and categorization, self-adapting systems for the protection of autonomous systems against threats or hybrid chemical-computerized development environments. Currently, it seems that there is enormous future economic potential, if a number of technological-scientific breakthroughs would arise. Alternatively, it may also be seen as a long term evolutionary and incremental process, where problems are solved one step at a time. Besides this, it seems that bringing the advantages of this type of technologies into the debate with stakeholders might also be a necessary and evolutionary process in relation to the technological progress (social dimension).

As some research into artificial neural networks is driven by the long-term vision of creating artificial intelligence, the ethical dimension becomes important. Would this development lead to the “end of nature” as Bill McKibben feared in 1990? Or is it an illusion that the world is human-generated and human-managed independently of nature? These and other more fundamental questions have to be considered when discussing the “intrinsic limitations” of human beings. Apart from this, long term legal and social questions arise –, e.g. what legal status should artificial neural networks in Europe have? And finally, what kind of public funding and decision-making process (political dimension) is necessary for ethically sensitive development of competitive applications and products?

6. Example D: robotics

Robotics is another area of converging technologies that is both stimulating and challenging for science, business and society (in the medium to long term). In a recent report, the European Robotics Research Network (EURON, 2004) states (technological-scientific dimension) that “today robotics is first and foremost used in discrete manufacturing and for extending human capabilities in hazardous and inaccessible environments … Recent progress in mechanical engineering, human factors, sensory perception and computing is at the same time opening up a number of new potential application domains for robotics. In particular, there are a number of new application domains in which computers are augmented with facilities for physical interaction with the environments (page 4).” This leads to a number of new technological possibilities. Some examples of capabilities for robotics over the next ten to 20 years are:

This indicates that robotics will play an increasing role in numerous areas of industry and society. Some key areas are: automation and manufacturing, production, service and care industries, intelligent homes, medical systems, intelligent vehicles, logistics, field robotics, space robotics and underwater systems.

According to the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe and the International Federation of Robotics (2000), worldwide orders for industrial robots grew by 15 percent in 2000 compared with 1999 (economic dimension). Until 1999, the automotive sector was the leading industry for robots. Since then non-automotive industries (for example, industrial packing) have increased their orders for robots considerably. Robot parks have increased because robot prices have fallen rapidly relative to labor costs. Today's robots are considerably more versatile and perform more efficiently than a decade ago. And for a given quality and throughput, the acquisition costs for robots have diminished, while labor costs usually have increased steadily. Nevertheless, in fields where an extreme flexibility and adaptability is required, like in the health care sector, robots are still far from acceptable performance levels and their costs are consequently too high with regard to their practical use.

In absolute terms, however, robotics is still expensive and costs can only be reduced by economies of scale brought by large production. In many cases, however, this does not apply because robots need to be specifically designed for, or at least adapted to the clients' production lines. Robotics could benefit from greater resources and awareness among users of the autonomy they can bring.

The increased use of personal assistance robots in the health care sector (health dimension) could make some activities redundant and save resources, which could be used instead to satisfy current and coming demands of patients in ageing societies. It could be an effective and affordable option for the care of older citizens. However, the downside could be that European health care systems would no longer be social institutions providing human care. Currently, it is an open question if older people would accept such a development and if yes, to which degree (social dimension).

If personal assistance robots are to be accepted by the public, they must fulfill a real need. In contrast to entertainment robots, which – according to some experts – might be a great success on the market, personal assistant robots have to be helpful and effective in satisfying human needs in the long run. Robotics will certainly influence public areas of society. This is not just linked with social aspects but also with ethical ones (ethical dimension). Some people argue that if robots take over important roles in society, the real human needs must be discussed. Sensitive areas of human life (e.g. elderly care and medical robotics) need detailed analysis of both the opportunities and risks that developed robotic solutions may bring. This discussion would provide the basis for an analysis of how current law should be revised to ensure that ethical aspects are taken into consideration (legal dimension). It is worth remembering that this is a dynamic process and depends on future developments, while EURON's (2004) assessment of critical areas reflects the thinking of today:

The above two areas of concern (substitution of humans by robots and responsibility for damage caused by robots) give rise to a number of open and far-reaching questions of public interest which go beyond science policy (political dimension) and ought to be discussed in a broader context.

7. Future considerations

Table I summarizes the opportunities and risks in the areas human brain interface, speech recognition, artificial neural networks and robotics. For each of them the opportunities and risk are categorized by different dimensions (e.g. technological, economic, health). Open questions on the political level are basically similar for all four examples.

When discussing possible ways and tools how to approach the above mentioned open questions linked with the political dimension it is necessary to keep in mind some important factors.

7.1 Expectations

Many experts believe that technology convergence will lead to ground-breaking innovation in science, business and society in the twenty-first century. The prospect for large potential has generated a high level of expectation, particularly on the side of the researchers and industries likely to exploit these. Tangible products, however, are still in their early stages, since converging applications are less developed as compared, for example, with more “traditional” biotechnology applications and products. For any possible strategy it is necessary to take into account the long-term nature of CA, the long-term time schedule for socio-economic returns and the risk for pushing a short-term hype.

7.2 Economic potential

The innovative potential of converging applications can be leveraged when technological possibilities can be matched with real user needs. To analyze these “matching patterns” the availability of adequate platforms of cooperation between science, industry and other relevant stakeholders are necessary. This would allow the identification of “show stoppers” (in the sense of innovation obstacles and dangers) at an early stage. Such platforms could be based on round-table discussions between all relevant stakeholders (including also representatives of NGOs). A differentiated monitoring of the economic potential may point out trends and possibilities, which may facilitate investment and (public) funding decisions. The prognosticated economic potential may be analyzed for instance in health care, entertainment and markets for the European ageing population.

7.3 Sectoral considerations (the case of health care)

In times of an ageing population thought Europe, the health care system benefit from using converging applications and products. New diagnostic and therapy procedures offer various opportunities for patients as well as for the health care systems in general. The various uses of the potentials in medicine could be stimulated by an analysis of the broad spectrum of medical applicability and the preventive medicine.

7.4 Technology acceptance

One option to sensitize the acceptance of CA in the ageing European societies is to highlight the potential for future applications by referring to existing products, such as pacemaker or hearing aids. A complementary possibility is to regard converging applications as an ensemble of innovations promising fundamental innovations and surprising possibilities for use. For this, scenario building exercises might be very helpful. From short, medium or long-term societal scenarios we could learn more about societal and individual requirements and reservations concerning converging applications. It might also be interesting to think about how to integrate the perspective of intergeneration justice between young and old people, rich and poor people and non-disabled and disabled people in an analysis.

The relevant stakeholders, like science, business (industrial companies, banks and insurance companies), politics and NGO follow different logics when acting. Therefore, societal scenarios could also contribute to a common language, clear parameters for the scientific community and a better understanding of the real needs of users and the product world:

7.5 Misuse

Although an absolute protection against misuse seems illusionary, international conventions preventing technology misuse and corresponding safety precautions could be part of an international co-operation on converging applications.

8. Concluding remarks

A core question in relation to the development of emerging technologies, to which converging applications presently belong, is how (conscientious and civilized) human beings can use converging applications in a way so that the risk to harm other people can remain as small as possible. Also an innovation and technology analysis (ITA) in the sense of technology assessment (TA) will probably in the near future find no generally accepted answers to such questions[6]. Such an assessment cannot predict every possible problem nor solve problems. Decisions how to handle problems linked with Converging Applications and how to shape the processes when developing these technologies either in an evolutionary or a revolutionary way has to be made by society. However, ITA as a starting point can contribute that the short and medium term opportunities and risk potential of converging applications are discussed socially sensitive in time and as broad as possible. It also can help presenting punctual alternatives. The aim of this approach is to try to decrease the frustration related to the innovation paradox or Collinridge dilemma: The fact that in a technological trajectory the interest of the public in a new technology is awakened at the moment when the margins to influence this trajectory have become rather narrow. Through raising the awareness of important actors in the public at an earlier stage these margins increase. A first constructive contribution for following discussions and further work might be achieved by this article.

ImageOverview of opportunities and risks of converging applications examples
Table IOverview of opportunities and risks of converging applications examples

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About the authors

N. Malanowski joined the ICT Unit at IPTS in 2005 as a senior visiting scientist, working on converging applications for active ageing. He has a Diploma in Social Sciences and a PhD in Political Science/Political Economy. He worked as a consultant for different private and public organizations and has been a lecturer at the Open University in Hagen, Germany since 1991. He was a Senior Researcher at the University of Bochum, Germany, and at the Center of Technology Assessment in Stuttgart. Since 1999, he has been a Senior Consultant at the VDI Technology Center. His specific fields of competence are in the socio-economic aspects of converging applications, nanotechnology, ICT, biotechnology, social policy and ageing societies. He has completed a number of projects for the EU and for several German Federal Ministries in these fields. Norbert Malanowski is the corresponding author and can be contacted at: norbert.malanowski@ec.europa.eu

R. Compañó holds a PhD in natural sciences (physics) from the Technical University of Aachen and a Masters in Technology Management from Solvay/ULB in Brussels. He dealt with material sciences, microelectronics and nanotechnology-related topics since he joined the European Commission in 1993. He contributed to the implementation and strategy of the Information Society Technology Programme, first in the Future and Emerging Technologies Unit and later for the whole programme. In 2004, he joined the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) of the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, where he is involved in technology Foresight of information and communication technologies.