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Book cover: Advances in Business and Management Forecasting

Advances in Business and Management Forecasting

ISSN: 1477-4070
Series editor(s): Professor Kenneth D. Lawrence

Subject Area: Management Science/Management Studies

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A comparison of methods for forecasting intermittent demand with increasing or decreasing probability of demand occurrences


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Title:A comparison of methods for forecasting intermittent demand with increasing or decreasing probability of demand occurrences
Author(s):Matthew Lindsey, Robert Pavur
Volume:5 Editor(s): Kenneth D. Lawrence, Michael D. Geurts ISBN: 978-0-7623-1478-2 eISBN: 978-0-85724-787-2
Citation:Matthew Lindsey, Robert Pavur (2008), A comparison of methods for forecasting intermittent demand with increasing or decreasing probability of demand occurrences, in Kenneth D. Lawrence, Michael D. Geurts (ed.) 5 (Advances in Business and Management Forecasting, Volume 5), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, pp.115-132
DOI:10.1016/S1477-4070(07)00207-3 (Permanent URL)
Publisher:Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Article type:Chapter Item
Abstract:When forecasting intermittent demand the method derived by Croston (1972) is often cited. Previous research favorably compared Croston's forecasting method for demand with simple exponential smoothing assuming a nonzero demand occurs as a Bernoulli process with a constant probability. In practice, however, the assumption of a constant probability for the occurrence of nonzero demand is often violated. This research investigates Croston's method under violation of the assumption of a constant probability of nonzero demand. In a simulation study, forecasts derived using single exponential smoothing (SES) are compared to forecasts using a modification of Croston's method utilizing double exponential smoothing to forecast the time between nonzero demands assuming a normal distribution for demand size with different standard deviation levels. This methodology may be applicable to forecasting intermittent demand at the beginning or end of a product's life cycle.

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