Scenario Analysis in the Elbe River Basin as Part of Integrated Assessment

Frank Messner

doi:10.1016/S1569-3740(07)07004-6

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Advances in the Economics of Environmental Resources

ISSN: 1569-3740
Series editor(s): Professor Richard Howarth

Subject Area: Economics

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Scenario Analysis in the Elbe River Basin as Part of Integrated Assessment

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Title:	Scenario Analysis in the Elbe River Basin as Part of Integrated Assessment
Author(s):	Frank Messner
Volume:	7 Editor(s): Jon D. Erickson, Frank Messner, Irene Ring ISBN: 978-0-7623-1448-5 eISBN: 978-1-84950-507-9
Citation:	Frank Messner (2007), Scenario Analysis in the Elbe River Basin as Part of Integrated Assessment, in Jon D. Erickson, Frank Messner, Irene Ring (ed.) Ecological Economics of Sustainable Watershed Management (Advances in the Economics of Environmental Resources, Volume 7), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, pp.69-96
DOI:	10.1016/S1569-3740(07)07004-6 (Permanent URL)
Publisher:	Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Article type:	Chapter Item
Abstract:	This chapter describes the scenario technique used for the integrative methodological approach (IMA) of the German global change project GLOWA Elbe. It is outlined how regional scenarios are systematically derived to analyze water use conflicts and their resolution in the context of global change for the German Elbe river basin. Through the combination of frameworks of development and policy strategies a consistent set of developmental scenarios can be generated that makes it possible to examine the regional impact of policy strategies under conditions of different future global change development paths. The scenario analysis of the framework of development starts on the global level with qualitative IPCC storylines, translates them to the regional level, and quantifies their regional effects by means of modeling and statistical estimation methods. The policy strategies are derived in close cooperation with regional stakeholders.