Predictive performance measurement system: A fuzzy expert system approach

This paper aims to present a fuzzy expert system approach to develop performance measurement systems which have forward looking capabilities.

A case‐based methodology is used to test the conceptual approach in manufacturing organisations. Semi‐structured interviews and observation are also used to explore the benefits and limitations of the proposed system. Two manufacturing organisations, an industrial printer manufacturer and a textile manufacturer, are selected as test cases. This paper describes the application of the proposed system in the textile manufacturer in detail.

The developed system enables managers to develop systematic ways to predict future delivery performance and identify potential problems in a company. The predictive ability of the developed system is comparable with the judgement of the manager in the case company. The feedback on its uses and difficulties in its developed process is also reported.

Owing to a long implementations time for each case, the number of the test case is limited.

This paper proposes the use of fuzzy expert systems in the development of predictive performance measurement systems. The paper also offers practical help to organisations to enhance a forward‐looking capability into their operations.