Sunshine, temperature and wind: Community risk assessment of climate change, indigenous knowledge and climate change adaptation planning in Ghana

1. Introduction

The paper draws on indigenous people’s knowledge for conducting community risk assessment (CRA) of climate change and climate variability, focusing in particular, on sunshine, temperature and winds in Ghana. Most climate change research focuses on rainfall changes because of its direct effect on farming to the neglect of other equally important factors that affect livelihoods. It is evident that scientific knowledge systems need to be complemented with indigenous knowledge systems for enhancing effective community resilience to climate change.

Climate change, precipitation variability and recurrent droughts have adversely affected the economy of Ghanain urban and rural settlements annually (World Bank, 2010). Rainfall variability, increasing intensity of temperature, sunshine and wind intensities are getting worse and compromising agriculture and food security in Ghana. Temperatures in northern Ghana are the highest in the country and projected to increase by about 2.1-2.4°C by the year 2050 (World Bank, 2010). The forecast is that climate change will have a profound adverse effect on agriculture, leading to a decline in crop and livestock production and consumption in northern Ghana (World Bank, 2010; Gyampoh and Asante, 2011). Thus, CRA is critical for informing climate change adaptation planning (CCAP).

2. Vulnerability to climate change in West Africa

Climate change is distinct from climate variability mainly in relation to time or period of change. Climate change often refers to changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties for a long period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be caused by natural internal processes or by external factors as in anthropogenic forces (IPCC, 2012). Climate variability is variations in climate, including the normal highs and lows, wet and dry periods, hot and cool periods and extreme values. It can range from day-to-day variability and to year-to-year variability. It can even refer to decadal scale variability except that such variability over a multi-decadal scale is climate change (USAID, 2014).

Evidence of climate change in West Africa abounds in the literature. In respect of precipitation, the pattern in West Africa demonstrates a high level of year-to-year variability with alternating wet and dry years occurring in series over decades (Hulme et al., 2001). The periods 1950-1970 and 1971-2000 in the climate history of Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa were long, wet and dry periods, respectively. The forecast is that West Africa will witness significant decrease in total rainfall by 2100 because of anthropogenically driven global warming (Lemoalle, 2007; IPCC, 2007). Forecast for Ghana suggests a cyclical pattern for all regions and decrease and increase precipitations toward the northern and southern parts of the country, respectively. Temperatures in Sub-Saharan Africa are projected to increase with mean annual temperatures in the Sahel part of the Volta basin rising by 2°C and further by more than 3°C in April (Kunstmann and Jung, 2005). Forecast for temperature and precipitation trends over a 40-year period (2010-2050) show warming across Ghana with higher temperature projections for northern Ghana (World Bank, 2011). Such increase in temperatures in the basin will have a negative impact on agriculture, food security and health of the inhabitants. For instance, increased temperatures will likely increase the levels of water related diseases such as cholera in tropical waters and reduce agricultural yields (Lemoalle, 2007).

In Sub-Saharan Africa, high levels of poverty, low education, low technology, inequality, limited access to information and low financial status make countries and their populations the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change (Care International, 2011). These factors coupled with rapid population growth drive extensive exploitation of natural resources and environmental degradation leading to scarcity of water and water resources in the Volta basin (Welling et al., 2012). The incidence of annual floods, droughts and other hydro-meteorological hazards in the Volta basin already breeds tensions between and among the six riparian countries that share the basin (Brown and Crawford, 2008; Oyebande and Odunugu, 2007).

The agriculture sector is climate sensitive and very vulnerable to climate change. Agriculture is the primary occupation for majority of the active youth in West Africa and accounts for about 40 per cent of economic output in the Volta basin. The effects of increasing variations in precipitation and temperatures are negatively threatening agriculture and food security, water and water resources in Sub-Sahara Africa. Changes in precipitation manifest in shorter duration of the rainy season with severe consequences on rain fed agriculture and food security (Lemoalle, 2007; Kunstmann and Jung, 2005; McCartney et al., 2012). A dramatic precipitation decrease of up to 70 per cent over the entire Volta basin is predicted for the beginning of the planting season (Kunstmann and Jung, 2005). This will adversely affect food crop, poultry and livestock production in Sub-Saharan Africa including regions within the Volta basin. Furthermore, increased temperatures will have adverse effects on evapotranspiration, vegetation, animal distribution and productivity. The concentration of carbon dioxide across West Africa reveals an adverse shift in the length of the growing season, with a decrease of about 20 days in the central part of the Volta basin (Lemoalle, 2007). In Benin, it is anticipated that climate change will cause a decrease of about 10-20 per cent in agricultural production by the year 2050. Food crop and livestock production in Togo are also anticipated to be adversely affected by climate change because of decreases in rainfall and increases in temperatures (Lemoalle, 2007). According to Brown and Crawford (2008), a decrease in annual rainfall by 3.4 and 7.3 per cent by 2025 and 2050, respectively, will seriously affect the production of cotton, maize and yam in Burkina Faso. This combined with a rise in temperatures by 1.7°C will reduce water availability for livestock in many Sub-Saharan African countries including Ghana.

In Ghana, as in many Sub-Saharan African countries, rain-fed agriculture is the primary source of livelihood (Antwi-Agyei et al., 2011; McCartney et al., 2012; Republic of Ghana, 2013). This implies that food crop farming and livestock production are vulnerable to climate change and climate variability and thus, undermine efforts at attaining food security, particularly in northern Ghana. Extreme climate conditions result in poor crop yields, crop failures, loss of livestock and loss of agricultural lands in northern Ghana. Overall, climate change evidenced in precipitation and temperature changes and the consequences of droughts and floods adversely affect agriculture production and translate into low agricultural production in Ghana and northern Ghana in particular (File, 2015). Farmers’ inability to predict the onset of the rainy season amid decreasing rainfall and increasing duration of dry periods further increases their exposure to climatic risk and hazards such as droughts, floods and extreme temperatures that result in crop failure and loss of livestock (Laube et al., 2008, p. 2; Andreini et al., 2000). The floods that occurred in 2007 in Ghana affected about 332,600 people and caused the death of 56 persons in the Upper East, Upper West and Northern Regions and parts of Western Region (Kankam-Yeboah et al., 2010; Republic of Ghana, 2013). These trends may undermine the socio-economic well-being of the country, particularly, northern Ghana given that the local economy is dominated by agriculture and other climate-sensitive sectors (Kuuzegh, 2007; World Bank, 2011; Republic of Ghana, 2013).

3. Community risk assessment and indigenous knowledge: conceptual framework for assessing climatic risks

In this paper, CRA is adapted as a conceptual framework for drawing on indigenous knowledge of the Sissala people for assessing climate variability. CRA involves the use of participatory approaches for assessment of vulnerabilities (hazards and capacities for disaster risk reduction) at community level (Aalsta et al., 2008, p. 165). The CRA uses participatory approaches that combine local knowledge with scientific information to enable clear understanding of the implications of climate change for the lives and livelihoods of the people. This process builds local people’s understanding about climate risks and adaptation strategies. It therefore provides a framework for dialogue within and between communities and other stakeholders for analyzing vulnerability and capacity to adapt to climate change at the community level (Care International., 2011). The recognition of indigenous knowledge in CRA makes it unique.

The CRA process can be complex and detailed depending on the availability of local resources. Rural communities are mostly confronted with inadequate access to weather and climate forecast information, low technology, poor infrastructure and low education among other challenges. In any case, the use of practical participatory tools create room for the use of local knowledge and available local resources in gathering, organizing and analyzing information on the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of communities, households and individuals. This makes CRA a simple process for community members and other users. The participatory process of CRA also provides learning and clear understanding of climate change impacts and adaptation initiatives and as well recognizes the role of indigenous knowledge in in CCAP. Therefore, the extent to which communities conduct risk assessment processes may usually depend much on the capabilities of communities and the resources available to them (Stouffer, 2015).

CRA serves as a guide for taking practical steps in preparedness and mitigation actions on climatic events that reduce both the chance of emergencies and the consequences when they cannot be avoided. It thus facilitates a clear understanding of community vulnerability and exposure to hazards to inform the process of preparing community contingency, emergency response and recovery action plans for addressing climatic events. It provides risk information that informs community residents, business owners and institution managers of the hazards to expect and how to best prepare for them (SRC, 2007). CRA can contribute to vulnerability and risk assessments by helping users to collect, synthesize and organize information about the development context, the climate context, climate impacts and risks and the design of adaptation responses (IISD, 2012).

The International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD, 2012) outlines three phases and practical steps for conducting CRA in the project context. Phase 1 deals with the context of livelihoods and climate system of communities. The process specifies the impacts of and responses to identified climate hazards in the community. The outcome is a list of livelihood resources for men and women that are most affected by climate hazards and most important for responding to the impacts of these hazards. Phase 2 evaluates the implications for the project and builds on the information collected in Phase 2 to analyze how project activities affect livelihood resources that are either vulnerable to climate hazards or important for responding to the impacts of these hazards. The evaluation process enables actors to revise process activities of CRA toward reducing the level of exposure of livelihood options to climatic risks and hazards and designing new activities to reducing climatic risks. The outcomes include a list of project adjustments and prioritized new activities that support climate adaptation and a list of key opportunities and barriers to successful implementation of activities. Phase 3 is concerned with monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of climate adaptation. It helps identify some key elements that can be integrated into existing or newly developed M&E framework. It assesses the implementation of adaptation activities and the factors that influence or could influence their outcomes. This phase therefore, produces a list of desired adaptation outcomes and important influencing factors to be monitored.

Phase 1 and its steps, processes and outputs are relevant for this paper (Table I). Phase 1 concerns itself with understanding the livelihood and climate context and in particular, providing an opportunity for the local populations to participate in mapping the climate related risks that affect their livelihood systems and totality of life.

Thus, community consultations are very crucial for a successful CRA process. Consultations help identify the real key climatic issues affecting communities and livelihoods and also engage community members to participate fully in the process. This process allows for effective identification of critical issues for effective community risks assessment that informs strong adaptation planning. Community engagements and consultations can be held with key actors, community members, partners and experts throughout the entire CRA process. Consultations are important especially during the initial stages of the CRA process where information is gathered on climate and livelihoods to explore local-level perceptions on climate hazards and their impacts. It also explores the current and potential responses to both present and future climatic risks in communities (IISD, 2012). Community engagements also ensure proper planning, adjustments and management of activities according to local needs, priorities and conditions. The approaches in engagements, however, need to be flexible to ensure maximum participation and accuracy of information.

Indigenous knowledge is critical and crucial for conducting CRA. Indigenous knowledge is the body of knowledge, or bodies of knowledge, of the indigenous people of particular geographical areas that they have survived on for a very long time (Mapara, 2009; Shoko, 2012). Thus, participatory methods of gathering information such as site visits, focus group discussions (FGDs), informal meetings and/or organized workshops using participatory rural appraisal tools such as resource mapping, vulnerability matrix and seasonal calendars are usually used for enabling genuine participation of the local populations in the CRA process and for tapping into their indigenous knowledge. These allow for full participation of all groups/stakeholders and opinion leaders and in particular, drawing on the indigenous and or local knowledge of the local populations participating in the process.

4. The study area and context

The study was conducted in the Sissala East District, located in the north-eastern part of the Upper West Region of Ghana. The district has a total land size of 4,744 sq. km representing 26 per cent of the total landmass of the region (Figure 1). The estimated population of the district is 56,528. Of this number, 48.7 per cent are males and 52.3 per cent females (Ghana Statistical Service, 2012). The district capital, Tumu, has 19.03 per cent of the district population and it is the only settlement with the status of a town population and infrastructure. The settlement pattern is highly dispersed and rural by nature.

The district falls within the Guinea Savannah vegetation belt. The vegetation consists of grasses with scattered fire resistant trees such as the shea nut, the baobab and dawadawa trees. Acacia is also a common tree of this vegetation belt. The heterogeneous collection of these trees meets domestic requirements for firewood and charcoal, construction of houses, cattle kraals and fencing of gardens. The shorter shrubs and grasses provide fodder for livestock. The shea tree is one of the great economic assets of the district.

The climate is tropical continental as experienced in the northern regions of Ghana. Throughout the year, temperatures are high with a minimum of 23°C at night and a maximum of 42°C during the day. The mean monthly temperature ranges between 21°C and 32°C. The highest monthly maximum temperature rises up to 40°C before the rainy season in May with lowest minimum temperature of 12°C in December during the harmattan season.

The district has a single rainy season usually from May to September/October during which farmers cultivate crops. This is the main production season as irrigation is very limited. In 2009, the first quarter of the year recorded 6.9 mm rainfall and the second quarter, 447.2 mm. At the beginning of the third quarter, drought occurred threatening food production. Subsequently, rains set in and the quarter registered 937.4 mm of rain. The rains intensified and resulted in floods which adversely affected crops yields, especially, maize and groundnuts. Some fields were totally submerged under water and others were washed away. This affected the entire district but the eastern block was the worst affected. There is an indication that rainfall intensity is decreasing in the district. The total number of days of rain ranged from 70 to 80 days in 1999 compared to 51 days of rain in 2009. The mean annual rainfall in 1999 was 121 mm compared to 104 in 2009 (SEDA, 2013). This has implications for food security in the district.

5. Methods of data collection

The paper draws on a qualitative research design, using in-depth interviews, FGDs, seasonal calendar and inter-generational analysis for assessing changes in the selected climatic elements. Three communities namely, Vamboi, Nabugubelle and Nmanduanu in the Sissala East District were randomly sampled from a list of six purposively selected communities prominent in rain-fed crop farming in the district (Figure 1).

In-depth interviews were conducted among 27 purposively sampled key informants, 9 in each community. The distribution was as follows: Jantina (earth priest) (3), chiefs (3), traditional chief farmers (3), traditional queens (3), Magazia (women leaders) (3) and household heads (12). These interviews enabled an in-depth probe of the issues drawing on the wealth of knowledge and experience of the target respondents.

Data was also collected through 15 FGDs. Five FGDs were conducted in each five community among different groups of discussants, including, elders (usually male), male farmers, female farmers, male youth and female youth. The discussants per session ranged from 8 to 12 and sessions were facilitated with the aid of an FGD guide. Gender segregation was necessary to allow for free expression. Women do not actively participate in discussions in the middle of men because of cultural factors. Seasonal calendar analysis was applied as part of FGDs for understanding indigenous knowledge systems of seasons, activities and changes in seasons. This enabled participatory analysis of changes in climatic elements such as sunshine, temperature and winds.

An inter-generational framework was adopted for data collection and analysis. We analyzed changes between two generations, the era of grandfathers (past generation) and the era of grandsons (present generation). The present generation in this framework refers to the present generation of household heads who were interviewed and the era of their fathers, the transition phase for understanding the changes between the past and present.

6. Results

The results are analyzed around three themes. These include sunshine, temperature and winds and how these have changed over time and between generations.

7. Discussion

Comparative analysis of results reveals significant changes in sunshine, temperature and winds with profound implications for development planning in Ghana. The results reveal that increased and prolonged high sunshine intensity in recent times has made it difficult to distinguish between indigenous classifications of sunshine seasons and hence, undermine the relevance of such knowledge systems in their current state. A gradual pattern of convergence and rising dominance of Wulungyia is observed. Sunshine intensities have increased significantly and remain high across all seasons in the local calendar year, including the peak of the rainy season. Such high-intensity sunshine is unbearable for farm work during the day, affects crop yields and human health. These findings on sunshine changes corroborate some other research findings. According to Farauta et al. (2011), high sun intensity in northern Nigeria resulted in reduced crop yields among farmers. Unlike Ghana, the smoke-like cover in the sky was reported to become more extreme over the years in Northern Nigeria. This study showed that high-intensity sunshine caused damages and or posed challenges in harvesting root and tuber crops such as yam, yiiria and potatoes. These food crops easily rot under intense sunshine and lead to high post-harvest losses. High sunshine also causes some crops to wilt and flowering plants to shed off flowers prematurely. These findings corroborate work of Gyampoh et al. (2009) who found that intensive sunshine caused crops and vegetables to wilt and ripe prematurely, and thus, affecting yields and sales of crop produce in rural communities in the Offin River basin of Ghana. Thus, while the findings largely corroborate those of other studies in respect of agriculture vulnerability to high sunshine, an additional value is the demonstrated relevance of indigenous knowledge for analyzing and enabling understanding of changes in sunshine in contemporary times.

The results also show increases in temperature and an increase in the duration of the warm season during the year. High temperatures occur during the warm season from January to May. These high temperatures affect farm work and general life in many ways. According to Gyasi et al. (2006), high temperatures in northern Ghana compel people to sleep outside their rooms or sleep with their windows and doors opened at night. Even for southern Ghana, in the Ejura-Sekyedumase District, majority of people believed temperatures had become warmer in recent years than in the past (Kemausuor et al., 2011). Similarly, De Pinto et al. (2012) note that temperatures were higher in northern Ghana than any other part of Ghana. They project that temperatures could further increase between 1.0 and 3.0°C in 2060 and between 1.5 and 5.2°C in 2090. Similarly, Obeng and Assan (2009) report that temperature trends in northern Ghana in particular suggest gradual increase of 1.9°C, over the period 1962-2002. These findings are consistent with the findings of Bryan et al. (2010) and Ogalleh et al. (2012) who note that temperatures in Ghana were increasing, worsening drought conditions, impacting negatively on crop farming, water and water resources. Further evidence corroborates temperature increases in Ghana and the negative impact on development. Temperatures across Ghana are increasing and resulting in low crop yields and high prices in foodstuff (Gyampoh and Asante, 2011) and for northwestern Ghana, high temperatures are adversely affecting the production of root and tuber crops (Sagoe, 2006). In general, the coterminous occurrence of high-intensity sunshine and temperature had a doubling adverse effect on people and their livelihoods. The findings reveal increasing warming, intensity and duration of occurrence of both climatic elements and consequently, increasing vulnerability to these observed trends.

The findings also reveal uncertain patterns in wind directions, increased intensity and severer damaging effects of rainstorms in recent times than in the past. These findings corroborate findings from other studies. Gyampoh and Asante (2011) found that strong winds accompanying rainfall in most parts of northern Ghana caused destruction to farms, affecting crops such as maize, millet and yam. In addition, they cause damage to economic trees, including shea and dawadawa trees and disrupt livelihoods of people who depend on these natural resources. Furthermore, the Teso people of Eastern Uganda observed changes in the direction of winds associated with rains and that the intensity of these winds had increased over the years (Egeru, 2012). Several researchers have attributed these changes to climate change as in strengthened westerly winds since the 1960s (Trenberth et al., 2007) and intensification of North East winds since the 1970s (Mörner et al., 2004). Other studies found mixed trends of decreasing and increasing wind speed in Coastal Tanzania since 1972 (Dubi, 2001); complete changes in direction of winds in Tanzania (Mahongo et al., 2011); and the observation among local people in the Laikipiaa District of Kenya that there have been significant changes in winds since the 1960s and that such changes have destroyed farms and crops resulting in poor yields (Ogalleh et al. (2012).

8. Conclusion

The paper concludes that the current generation of smallholder farmers is more vulnerable to climate change than the past generation, the era of grandparents. In particular, the current generation is exposed to higher intensity sunshine, temperature and wind and consequently, is affected the most by the damaging effects of these climatic hazards on their livelihoods, especially, smallholder agriculture, housing and health. The CRA process revealed two important lessons. First, it illustrated the relevance of indigenous knowledge systems for vulnerability assessments and second, it underpinned the need for adaptation of such knowledge if it is to sustain farmer efforts at climate change adaptation at community levels within the context of global change.

9. Implications for climate change adaptation planning

This paper advocates an endogenous development (ED) approach to CCAP through implementation of the national policy framework in Ghana and where similar conditions prevail in Sub-Saharan Africa. For most of Sub-Saharan Africa, there is already a decentralized system of local governance and this provides an appropriate institutional framework closer to local populations for implementing an ED approach to CCAP. This process should start with effective community mobilization and education on vulnerability to climate change and for mobilizing and triggering participatory community response to CCAP. Such an approach will enlist community commitment, build on existing knowledge systems and engender sustainability in climate change response. In this context, we put forward specific policy interventions for CCAP.

First, the promotion of pro-poor integrated soil and water conservation measures will be critical for supporting climate change adaptation given that the local populations are mainly smallholder farmers. One of the key vulnerabilities is exposure to high sunshine intensity, temperature and an exacerbating effect on drought with profound adverse effects on farming and life in general. Thus, soil and water conservation for crop production is critical. In the context of poverty, chemical fertilizers are economically out of reach for most smallholder farmers. Thus, the policy orientation should be to promote agronomic and organic practices in soil and water conservation as a more practical, inclusive and sustainable path to adapting smallholder agriculture to climate change.

Second, improving access to water for irrigation and gardening, and for domestic use such as cooking, bathing and laundry will also be critical to adaptation among smallholder farmers. Although Africa has a great irrigation potential, a greater part of that potential has not been developed mainly because of the lack of investments. If Africa is to adapt to climate change, it must develop its irrigation potential to support smallholder production. In addition to investing in community-based irrigation schemes, individual farmer initiatives have pointed to significantly low cost and practical innovations that can be supported. Lessons from research projects (e.g. supporting smallholder farmers’ decision-making: Managing trade-offs and synergies for sustainable intensification project) reveal that smallholder farmers are establishing gardens in valley fields and irrigating vegetables with water from manually excavated shallow wells. This has increased agriculture production for such farmers and improved incomes and nutrition for household members. With little extension support, many more smallholder farmers could tap into this potential for production during the dry season. Aside agriculture, improving access to water will facilitate multiple domestic uses and bring relief to the most vulnerable, including the aged, children, women and girls in particular.

Third, promoting appropriate building architecture and technology will also be critical for enhancing adaptation to high sunshine and temperature exposure. Thus, building on and improving local architectural designs and use of local materials with less heat absorption properties will be useful for enhancing adaptation. Some indigenous architectural designs and building materials have proven resilient and enabled smallholder farming households adapt to extreme climate for generations. Thus, improving courtyards and safety of rooftops for sleeping at night, improving ventilation through bigger windows through improved architectural designs is critical for CCA.

Furthermore, planting and protection of trees around homes and farms for the purposes of serving as windbreaks can reduce the damaging effects of storms to housing. In the case of farms, agro-forestry, planting hedge plants around farms and promotion of farmer managed natural regeneration can reduce vulnerability. Economic trees can provide additional benefits such as shades, fruits and income.

Finally, this paper recommends that gender mainstreaming, community advocacy and education be promoted as cross cutting policy issues and mainstreamed into the policy measures put forward. These must be reinforced through gender analysis and gendered approaches for addressing inequalities and promoting inclusive climate change adaptation for development.