Climate change and supply-chain vulnerability: Methodologies for resilience and impacts quantification

The increasing complexity of the present economic system and the strong interdependencies existing between production activities taking place in different world areas make modern societies vulnerable to crisis. The global supply chain is a paradigmatic example of economic structures on which the impacts of unexpected events propagate rapidly through the system. Climate change, which affects societies all over the world, is one of the most important factors influencing the efficiency of the present economic networks. During the last decades a large set of studies have been oriented to investigate the direct impacts generated on specific geographical areas or productions. However, a smaller number of analyses have been oriented to quantify the cascading and indirect economic effects generated all over the world. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

The main objective of this paper is to provide an overview of the main studies, methodologies and databases used to investigate the climate vulnerability of the global supply chain.

The great complexity of the global economic system, coupled with methodological and data gaps, makes it difficult to estimate the domino effects of unexpected events. A clear understanding of the possible consequences generated all over the world is, however, a fundamental step to build socio-economic resilience and to plan effective adaptation strategies.

The information provided in this paper can be useful to support further studies, to build consistent quantification methodologies and to fill the possible data gap.