Exploring the potentials of behavioral system dynamics: insights from the field

This study aims to contribute to the ongoing debate on behavioral operational research (BOR), specifically discussing the potential of system dynamics (SD) models to analyze decision-making heuristics. In more detail, the study suggests using an SD model as an ex-post research tool adopted not only to mimic a role-playing game (RPG) – reproducing the whole physical structure, and the complete set of decision rules specified for a supply chain (SC) management game – but also, and specifically, to replicate and analyze the players’ in-game behavior and decision-making.

After presenting a brief literature review devoted to highlighting the key concepts of the emerging streams of research named BOR and behavioral system dynamics (BehSD), the study presents the characteristics and results of an SC management-based RPG and describes the SD model that was developed to mimic the game and provide the base-run. A triangulation of data sources (which included feedback questionnaires and reports drawn up by 86 participants, as well as notes collected through direct observation of one of the authors) was used to infer information about and in-game decisions. Subsequently, four alternative versions of the SD model were calibrated to reproduce, investigate and explain ex-post the players’ in-game behavior and decision-making heuristics; this study specifically refers to one of them.

The SD model can be considered as the first output of this research. The model was calibrated to mimic the game and subsequently used to develop a few alternative models, helpful to replicate players’ behavior and analyze decision-making heuristics. The findings reveal not fully rational decisions taken by the players and share common findings with previous literature on the emergence of sub-optimal strategies (e.g. phantom ordering and hoarding strategies). The data collected from questionnaires, reports and direct observation additionally revealed that stress and behavioral factors played a role in affecting in-game decision-making.

Considering a specific RPG setting, the SD model developed in this study replicated and captured the range of factors affecting decision-making heuristics, allowing an ex-post analysis of in-game decisions. Notably, the research design presented and used in this study can be considered a generic one, which could be applied subsequently in a variety of contexts, also in combination with simulation/gaming tools and techniques different from role-playing, and both for educational and training purposes, and for research validation.

This study builds on and makes a contribution to the debate related to the emerging stream of research of BOR and more specifically, provides insights and evidence for the yet growing field of BehSD, at the same time advocating and suggesting further research in this area. Overall, the research revealed that behavioral factors may play a relevant role in driving and affecting human decision-making in simulation/gaming contexts.