Measuring the effect of land degradation and environmental changes on agricultural production in Somalia with two structural breaks

The purpose of this study is to measure the effect of land degradation and the environmental changes on agricultural productivity in Somalia, as well as the other factors that affect crop production in Somalia.

Cobb-Douglas production function assumes crop production as a dependent variable and land degradation, labor, capital, fertilizer and climate change as the explanatory variables. In this study time-series data (1962–2017) collected from the Food and Agriculture Organization and World Development Indicators were used. The unit root of the data was examined using Ng-Perron and the Lee-Strazicich methods to explore the unit root property of the breaks. Structural breaks are observed using the Chow test, and the long-run relationship between the variables is examined using Gregory and Hanssen's approach.

This study found that land degradation and climate change have a negative relationship with agriculture production in Somalia. Land degradation leads to the decline in agricultural production as the loss of one hectare of land due the depletion causes agriculture production of Somalia to fall by about five percent. Climate changes and warming of the environment lead to the reduction of agriculture production. One degree Celsius rise in the temperature leads to a three percent decline in agricultural production. Capital contributes immensely to agricultural production as one unit of additional capital raises production by seven percent. The contribution of labor to agricultural production is limited because of land contraction

Land degradation is a significant contributor to the decline of agricultural production. As land degradation continues to worsen, rural poverty increases, which in turn causes the rural migration and the social conflict. The government should develop land improvement programs such as increasing market orientation of the farmers, encourage private sector engagement in agribusiness and establish a regulatory framework of the land uses.

This study examines the structure of the time-series and specifies the break periods to determine when and where significant and sudden changes occurred within land degradation and agricultural production. The study employs advanced econometric methods, namely, Ng-Perron method and the Lee-Strazicich method to test the unit root property of the breaks. It also examines the long-run relationship between the variables using Gregory and Hanssen's approach.