Predicting customer deposits with machine learning algorithms: evidence from Tunisia

This paper aims to evaluate the performance of the multiple linear regression (MLR) using a fixed-effects model (FE) and artificial neural network (ANN) models to predict the level of customer deposits on a sample of Tunisian commercial banks.

Training and testing datasets are developed to evaluate the level of customer deposits of 15 Tunisian commercial banks over the 2002–2021 period. This study uses two predictive modeling techniques: the MLR using a FE model and ANN. In addition, it uses the mean absolute error (MAE), R-squared and mean square error (MSE) as performance metrics.

The results prove that both methods have a high ability in predicting customer deposits of 15 Tunisian banks. However, the ANN method has a slightly higher performance compared to the MLR method by considering the MAE, R-squared and MSE.

The findings of this paper will be very significant for banks to use additional management support to forecast the level of their customers' deposits. It will be also beneficial for investors to have knowledge about the capacity of banks to attract deposits.

This paper contributes to the existing literature on the application of machine learning in the banking industry. To the author's knowledge, this is the first study that predicts the level of customer deposits using banking specific and macroeconomic variables.