Explanatory power of earnings for returns: nonstationarity, disaggregation and timeliness

This study aims to examine several hypotheses, in conjunction with fundamental accounting concepts, to explain variations in the explanatory power of earnings for returns.

The authors explore three factors for their impact on the explanatory power of earnings. First, the accounting period preceding the earnings report is characterized by distinct intratemporal subperiod behavior. Recognizing this intratemporal nonstationarity is hypothesized to increase the explanatory power of earnings. Second, disaggregation of earnings into operating components is hypothesized to increase the explanatory power of earnings. Moreover, joint consideration of these first two factors is investigated. Third, the authors hypothesize that recognizing fundamental accounting concepts such as timeliness, predictive value, objectivity and verifiability offer key insights into the explanatory power of earnings.

The authors explore a sample of firms with management forecasts, which yields natural intratemporal subperiods – preforecast, forecast and realization periods – to generate hypotheses rooted in fundamental accounting concepts. The empirical evidence shows that recognition of nonstationary intratemporal behavior and earnings disaggregation yields a significant increase in the explanatory power of earning for returns. These findings are linked to fundamental concepts of accounting information.

This study is unique as it examines the joint role of nonstationarity and disaggregation in assessing the information conveyed in earnings. Importantly, results on these factors are linked to fundamental accounting concepts of timeliness, predictive value, objectivity and verifiability, along with their inherent trade-offs.