Predicting the unpredictable: dealing with risk and uncertainty in broadband roll‐out
Abstract
Purpose
The objective of this paper is to offer a validated framework for the analysis of (future) risks and uncertainties involved in the decision‐making process concerning the upgrade and roll‐out of large infrastructural projects, e.g. broadband networks. The framework classifies risks and uncertainties based on the nature of the risks, levels and sources.
Design/methodology/approach
The approach takes the form of conceptual as well as qualitative and quantitative empirical analyses.
Findings
Telecommunications operators are faced with various types of risks and uncertainties in their decision‐making process concerning the upgrade and roll‐out of their broadband networks. In one respect, these risks and uncertainties have to do with the characteristics of large infrastructural projects, while, on the other hand, being caused by (unknown) competitor behaviour, (unknown) end‐user demand, rapid technological development and different development paths available to operators. Framing risks and uncertainties into a typology provides greater insight into the categories, characteristics and sources of the risks and uncertainties, as well as being a first step in finding ways to deal with them.
Originality/value
The paper presents and validates a framework for the analysis of risks and uncertainty. It also offers empirical data on how operators manage risk and uncertainties.
Keywords
Citation
Fijnvandraat, M. and Bouwman, H. (2010), "Predicting the unpredictable: dealing with risk and uncertainty in broadband roll‐out", Foresight, Vol. 12 No. 6, pp. 3-19. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636681011089952
Publisher
:Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2010, Emerald Group Publishing Limited