Evaluating the real estate market by confidence index in China: a case study of Shenzhen

The purpose of this paper is to present results from a pilot research into the Chinese real estate confidence index, called CRE index, with regard to three diverse aspects, including effective demand and supply, potential demand, and potential supply, and to develop an effective tool for diversity management at different levels in the Chinese real estate market.

To undertake this research, a novel methodology framework is introduced in terms of the three aspects. Extensive literature review and questionnaire survey are systematically adopted accordingly to work out three individual sub‐indices, and to compose the entire CRE index.

The research put forward a novel approach to describing the changing situations of the Chinese real estate market by means of the CRE index, which is synthetically calculated based on its three sub‐indices to reflect the three different aspects. For the calculation of the CRE index, data collected from government statistics and specific questionnaire survey are effectively used, and this proves a practical approach as proposed for the research.

Although the CRE index is proposed to be a generic indicator for the Chinese market, this research focuses only on a synthesized CRE index for the local real estate market in Shenzhen, and data collected are also limited from 1999 to 2003. However further research with more comprehensive data can draw an entire picture and provide more reliable forecast based on either local or national data in China.

As it is a generic indicator to reflect changes in the Chinese real estate market, the CRE index provides all stakeholders with a quantitative method to verify history and detect tendency with regard to the progressive development of the market which is influenced by dynamic social and natural conditions.

The CRE index has been developed as a tool to support diversity management in the Chinese real estate market, and it is assumed that governors at local, regional, and national levels can all use this tool in macroeconomic regulation and control towards the Chinese real estate market. Others, including developers, investors as well as consumers can all make informed judgments based on the value and trend of the CRE index.

The CRE index uniquely incorporates comprehensive market data and statistics, including historic data from government statistics and current information from questionnaire survey and literatures, into confidence index calculation. In this regard, comparing with other confidence indices for the real estate market, this method is capable of providing more informed predications, especially when statistical data are full and accurate.