Urbanization effects on temperature trends of Lahore during 1950‐2007

The purpose of this paper is to explore the trends of changing temperature of Lahore in Pakistan due to invigorating urbanization process since 1950‐2007.

This research is designed by using the numerical time series data of mean minimum temperature (MMiT), mean maximum temperature (MMxT) and mean annual temperature (MAT). The growth in urban population, area and transportation are also evaluated by using the available data. Linear regression method is applied to investigate the results of change in temperature. Three different approaches to examine the MAT are testified; first as an entire period (1950‐2007), and then by dividing the entire period into two equal phases as Phase I (1950‐1974) and Phase II (1975‐2207). MMiT and MMxT are analysed for the entire period without making any division.

The results of the paper are significantly indicating an increase in MAT and MMiT which have risen up to 0.89 and 2.51°C, respectively, while MMxT remained resolute throughout the study period. Change in MMiT is observed regular and brisk than other parameters of temperature. Increase in temperature in Phase I is observed only 0.062°C and in Phase II it is observed 0.94°C.

This research can be further worked out by using different meteorological models to study the effects of urbanization on lower surface atmosphere and urban heat island effects in Lahore.

By taking into consideration these results, the town planners and government can make different strategies to mitigate the urban effects on rising temperature in Pakistan.