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Economic impacts of climate change and variability on agricultural production in the Middle East and North Africa region

Mohamed Alboghdady (Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Suez Canal University, Ismailia, Egypt)
Salah E. El-Hendawy (Department of Plant Production, College of Food and Agriculture Sciences, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and Department of Agronomy, Faculty of Agriculture, Suez Canal University, Ismailia, Egypt)

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management

ISSN: 1756-8692

Article publication date: 16 May 2016

765

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of climate change and variability on agricultural production in Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) where the deleterious impacts of climate change are generally projected to be greatest.

Design/methodology/approach

The study used a production function model using Fixed Effect Regression (FER) analysis and then using marginal impact analysis to assess the impact of climate change and variability on agricultural production. Therefore, the study utilized panel data for the period 1961-2009 pooled from 20 countries in MENA region.

Findings

Results showed that 1 per cent increase in temperature during winter resulted in 1.12 per cent decrease in agricultural production. It was also observed that 1 per cent increase in temperature variability during winter and spring resulted in 0.09 and 0.14 per cent decrease in agricultural production, respectively. Results also indicated that increasing precipitation during winter and fall season and precipitation variability during winter and summer seasons had negative impact. The estimated parameters of square temperature and precipitation indicated that climate change has significant nonlinear impacts on agricultural production in MENA region.

Originality/value

Despite there are many studies on the impact of climate change on agricultural production, there is a lack of publications to address the economic impact of both climate change and variability on agricultural production in MENA region. Thus, these results are more comprehensive and more informative to policymakers than the results from field trials.

Keywords

Acknowledgements

This project was supported by King Saud University, Deanship of Scientific Research, College of Food & Agriculture Sciences, Research Center.

Citation

Alboghdady, M. and El-Hendawy, S.E. (2016), "Economic impacts of climate change and variability on agricultural production in the Middle East and North Africa region", International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, Vol. 8 No. 3, pp. 463-472. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-07-2015-0100

Publisher

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Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2016, Emerald Group Publishing Limited

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