Growth impact of CO₂ emissions caused by tourist arrivals in Turkey: An econometric approach

The purpose of this study is to analyze the determinants of changes in carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions for Turkey by utilizing the autoregressive distributed lag approach to investigate the long-run equilibrium relationships of CO₂ emissions between foreign tourist arrivals (FTAs) and electricity consumption (ELC). The results reveal that foreign tourists and ELC are significant determinants of a long-run equilibrium relationship with CO₂ emissions from electricity and heat production and CO₂ emissions from transport for Turkey, respectively. The results of the conditional error correction models (CECM) confirm that there are long-run causal relationships from the growing number of foreign tourist arrivals and the increase of ELC toward the growth of CO₂ emissions during 1960-2010. The results of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) error correction models for CO₂ emissions also validate significant dynamic relationships between CO₂ emissions, ELC and tourist arrivals in the short run.

ARDL modeling and Bounds test approach were used in this study.

Rapid tourism development in Turkey has triggered CO₂ emissions. The growth of CO₂ emissions in Turkey threatens sustainability. The hypothesis of “The growth of CO₂ emissions in Turkey” is validated. Tourist arrivals, ELC and CO₂ emissions are co-integrated. CECMs confirm the growth of CO₂ emissions during 1960-2010. ARDL modeling shows significant relationships between CO₂ emissions and other variables.

Results of ARDL error correction models for CO₂ emissions validate the hypothesis that there are significant dynamic relationships between CO₂ emissions, ELC and tourist arrivals in Turkey for the short run.