The effect of internal and external determinants of electricity projects in Libya

In recent times, electricity as one of the most important energy sources has witnessed considerable decreases in consumption figures. These cutbacks have been mainly due to the growing increasing living standards, minimal governance and political fracture. Thus, this paper aims to appraise the supply of electricity side in an attempt to propose a sustainable electricity framework.

The reviewed literature identified a gap within the previous literature which had not previously been investigated; however, to carry out the investigation, a research strategy had to be formulated. Twenty semi-structured interviews were carried out with managers, engineers and electrical professionals. Prior to the commencement of the main study, a preliminary pilot study was carried out among ten senior practitioners in the General Electric Company of Libya. The purpose of the pilot study was to assess clarity of questions, timing and suitability of the respondents for the study, and to establish its reliability and validity.

From the aspect of the demand, the study found that there was a diverse set of factors that affect electricity demand in Libya. These included the average real price of electricity, the real value of the imported electrical appliances, gross domestic product, population, the temperature difference and the lagged electricity demand. Secondly, from the aspect of electricity supply, the study found that there was a diverse set of factors that affect electricity projects in Libya or even the development of existing projects. These factors included electricity demand, political effects, recession, oil prices and improved development of other infrastructure.

Due to limitations in time and cost, political instability in the country and the lack of security, the entire analysis was only of the demand for electricity in Libya based on data collected from secondary sources and primary data resources. The ordinary least squares method of regression used for the purpose of quantitative analysis only included the factors related to the demand for electricity in Libya. It is worth noting that the research work did not include any quantitative analysis that comprised factors related to the supply of electricity in the country. Such an analysis could have technically carved the ways to augment the supply of electricity. Therefore, the context of the research work is one-sided that focuses primarily on the demand.

The problem confronting development of electricity projects in Libya has three components: The first is the national significance of the projects as a physical resource. The second is the conflict arising politically from within. The third is the lack of consideration given to the specific resource management issues associated with the projects within the government plans and policy statements. In addition, participants further claimed that there were three more independent factors that could affect the level of electricity demand in Libya. These were urbanisation, industrialisation and literacy rates.

The participants also believed that as the rate of socio-economic development increases, the demand for electricity is expected to rise. Urbanisation, industrialisation and literacy rates are some of the developments which will exert more demand pressure on the electricity supply. The participants claimed that the government should take into account the urbanisation rates in Libya in the energy policy formulation. Electricity companies can also take a cue from the urbanisation trends and other socio-economic developments to plan the delivery of electricity according to the rising demand.

This study appraised the supply of electricity side in Libya and proposed a sustainable framework that could be used by policymakers to address energy demand issues in Libya.