Survival probability in patients with liver trauma

The purpose of this paper is to assess the survival probability among patients with liver trauma injury using the anatomical and psychological scores of conditions, characteristics and treatment modes.

A logistic model is used to estimate 173 patients’ survival probability. Data are taken from patient records. Only emergency room patients admitted to University Hospital of Trauma (former Military Hospital) in Tirana are included. Data are recorded anonymously, preserving the patients’ privacy.

When correctly predicted, the logistic models show that survival probability varies from 70.5 percent up to 95.4 percent. The degree of trauma injury, trauma with liver and other organs, total days the patient was hospitalized, and treatment method (conservative vs intervention) are statistically important in explaining survival probability.

The study gives patients, their relatives and physicians ample and sound information they can use to predict survival chances, the best treatment and resource management.

This study, which has not been done previously, explores survival probability, success probability for conservative and non-conservative treatment, and success probability for single vs multiple injuries from liver trauma.