Equity induced up-trading and the housing market structure: Implications for price-to-income (PTI) and macroprudential interventions

The purpose of this paper is to highlight the importance of home equity and the interplay between market segments for housing market developments. The intention is to show that it is not only the aggregate equity gain but also the distribution of equity gains between segments that matter for how shocks to income impact house prices.

The paper sets out a linear housing market model with three segments. Households trade up a housing ladder and link the three segments for owner-occupied housing. The up-trading is equity-induced. An expression for the house price index, which is related to the market segment prices both directly through the segment size and indirectly through a segment position on the housing ladder is derived. The author considers the price effects of shocks to income in four housing market regimes.

The heterogeneous housing market model shows how the interplay between segments impacts housing markets. When considering shocks to income, short-run deviations in the price-to-income (PTI) ratio compared to their long-run equilibrium due to equity-induced up-trading were found. The extent of PTI overshooting is related to the intensity of equity-induced up-trading between different segments. The market structure necessary to eliminate such overshooting is contingent on the distribution of equity gains between segments. Finally, the paper shows how the price effects of macroprudential interventions might be non-negligible when indirect effects are taken into account.

The linear housing market model with three market segments introduces a framework where the intensity of equity-induced up-trading in different market segments can be analyzed. This distributional aspect is, to the best of the author's knowledge, novel. The context-specific relation between housing market structure, equity-induced up-trading and short-run deviations in the PTI ratio provides a foundation for future research.