Google search volume sentiment and its impact on REIT market movements

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effect of investor sentiment, measured with Google internet search data, on volatility forecasts of the US REIT market.

The author uses the S&P US REIT index and collects search volume data from Google Trends for all US REIT. Two different Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic models are then estimated, namely, the baseline model and the Google augmented model. Using these models, one-step-ahead forecasts are conducted and the forecast accuracies of both models are subsequently compared.

The empirical results reveal that search volume data can be used to predict volatility on the REIT market. Especially in periods of high volatility, Google augmented models outperform the baseline model.

The results imply that Google data can be used on the REIT market as a market indicator. Investors could use Google as an early warning system, especially in periods of high volatility.

This is the first paper to use Google search query data for volatility forecasts of the REIT market.