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Dynamic Factor Models for the Volatility Surface

Dynamic Factor Models

ISBN: 978-1-78560-353-2, eISBN: 978-1-78560-352-5

Publication date: 6 January 2016

Abstract

The implied volatility surface is the collection of volatilities implied by option contracts for different strike prices and time-to-maturity. We study factor models to capture the dynamics of this three-dimensional implied volatility surface. Three model types are considered to examine desirable features for representing the surface and its dynamics: a general dynamic factor model, restricted factor models designed to capture the key features of the surface along the moneyness and maturity dimensions, and in-between spline-based methods. Key findings are that: (i) the restricted and spline-based models are both rejected against the general dynamic factor model, (ii) the factors driving the surface are highly persistent, and (iii) for the restricted models option Δ is preferred over the more often used strike relative to spot price as measure for moneyness.

Keywords

Acknowledgements

Acknowledgments

We would like to thank the editors, two referees and participants at the 16th Annual Advances in Econometrics conference for their comments. Michel van der Wel is grateful to Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) for a Veni grant; and acknowledges support from CREATES, funded by the Danish National Research Foundation.

Citation

van der Wel, M., Ozturk, S.R. and van Dijk, D. (2016), "Dynamic Factor Models for the Volatility Surface ", Dynamic Factor Models (Advances in Econometrics, Vol. 35), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 127-174. https://doi.org/10.1108/S0731-905320150000035004

Publisher

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Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2016 Emerald Group Publishing Limited