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Chapter 2 Managing the Future: Models, Scenarios and the Control of Uncertainty

Transport and Climate Change

ISBN: 978-1-78052-440-5, eISBN: 978-1-78052-441-2

Publication date: 11 May 2012

Abstract

Purpose – To consider the emerging qualitative approaches that consider the future, exploring ways in which these may be better used to complement and extend established practice in global climate models.

Methodology/approach – A review of contemporary modelling approaches that consider the future for transport applications, with a focus on complexity and uncertainty issues, the search for foresight, the role of engagement and the credibility of qualitative foresight.

Findings – The importance of the need to incorporate socio-economic scenarios in climate change models and the possibilities offered by the tool of systematic qualitative foresight are demonstrated.

Originality/value – Explores limitations of quantitative modelling approaches to foresight and introduces a potentially complementary, innovative approach based on the systematic use of qualitative methodologies.

Keywords

Citation

Goulden, M. and Dingwall, R. (2012), "Chapter 2 Managing the Future: Models, Scenarios and the Control of Uncertainty", Ryley, T. and Chapman, L. (Ed.) Transport and Climate Change (Transport and Sustainability, Vol. 2), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 9-37. https://doi.org/10.1108/S2044-9941(2012)0000002005

Publisher

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Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2012, Emerald Group Publishing Limited