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Noisy information and stock market returns

Gang Li (Department of Finance, San Francisco State University, San Francisco, California, USA)

Studies in Economics and Finance

ISSN: 1086-7376

Article publication date: 1 August 2016

508

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to study whether noisy public information that investors receive about the expected aggregate dividend growth rate can help better understand the large average equity premium and stock return volatility in the US financial market.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper considers a dynamic asset pricing model with a representative agent, who cannot observe the expected growth rate of dividends and must learn its value by using noisy information. In addition, this paper presents a simple model for noisy information calibration.

Findings

With a coefficient of relative risk aversion below 10 and the time impatience parameter between 0 and 1, the calibrated model is able to yield an average risk-free interest rate, equity premium and stock return volatility that are close to the stylized facts in the US financial market.

Originality/value

First, this paper presents a different equilibrium model with a simple “catching up with the Joneses” preference and noisy information. Second, this paper develops a simple calibration procedure to calibrate the information process to study whether the calibrated model can help explain the large average equity premium and stock return volatility in the US financial market data.

Keywords

Citation

Li, G. (2016), "Noisy information and stock market returns", Studies in Economics and Finance, Vol. 33 No. 3, pp. 338-358. https://doi.org/10.1108/SEF-04-2015-0101

Publisher

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Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2016, Emerald Group Publishing Limited

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