Earnings surprises and the response of CDS markets

This paper aims to investigate the informational content of earnings surprises and accounting information in credit default swap (CDS) markets.

This paper analyzes a sample of 444 US firms and 6,907 earnings announcements. By means of parametric and non-parametric event study analysis, the paper assesses the informational value and the timeliness in the assimilation of earnings surprises by CDS rates.

This paper shows that earnings surprises contain material information and that CDS rates are affected by the disclosure of obligors’ financial statements. There is also supporting evidence that positive and negative surprises induce asymmetric reactions on CDS rates, especially after accounting for the credit risk of the obligor and the liquidity of the CDS contract. Finally, and perhaps the most interesting conclusion of the study, there is evidence that earnings disclosed during unstable periods lack informational value, in opposition to normal periods.

As compared with similar studies, this paper presents three novel contributions. The first concerns the use of non-parametric analysis in parallel with parametric tests to achieve robust conclusions. The second novel contribution resides in assessing whether the liquidity of the CDS contracts affects the information value of earnings surprises or the timeliness at which the information is assimilated into CDS rates. Finally, this paper also contributes to improve our understanding on the relationship between the business cycle and the informativeness of accounting information.