Snow reliability and climate elasticity: case of a Slovak ski resort

The aim of this paper is to present the relationship between climate and tourism development data as an example of an emerging winter and ski tourism destination in Slovakia.

The method aims to discover the relationship through snow-reliability and regression analyses and to further implicate the consequences of such established relationship under a changing (warming) climate.

As a result of the research, the authors can predict that a 1 per cent fall in snow depth and visibility would erode the ski demand by 1.2 and 0.12 per cent, respectively, a 1°C rise of the mean temperature, on the other hand, would indicate a 6 per cent loss of skipass sales. The latter finding translates into a further 6.6 to 19.2 per cent loss of sales on account of the anticipated temperature increases for the twenty-first century. The capacity of the resort for the utmost adaptation strategy, snowmaking, is also to deteriorate with the daytime/fulltime annual good quality production range to reduce from 33/45 days to 10-26/14-34 days, according to the emissions-related warming scenarios and in terms of the commonly available current technology.

The results of the study can help the management of ski resorts to adopt strategies for the future development by taking into account the predicted climatic changes.

This study is the first type of study performed in Slovakia and can contribute to the better understanding of the relationship between climate change and the performance of the ski tourism resorts. It also delivers innovation by considering wet-bulb temperature in snow-reliability analyses and also by coining the “climate elasticity” concept.