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From flood science to flood policy: the Foresight Future Flooding project seven years on

Edmund C. Penning‐Rowsell (Based at the Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University, London, UK)
Edward P. Evans (Based at Chippenham, UK)
Jim W. Hall (Based at the Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK)
Alistair G.L. Borthwick (Based at St Edmund Hall, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK)

Foresight

ISSN: 1463-6689

Article publication date: 7 June 2013

1090

Abstract

Purpose

The Foresight Future Flooding (FFF) project researched flood risk in the UK to the year 2100 for central government, using scenarios and a national risk assessment model backed by qualitative analysis from panels of some 45 senior scientists. The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of the project, both nationally and internationally.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper assesses the impact of the FFF project, both nationally and internationally, using web searches, document analysis, and a questionnaire survey of key actors in the flood risk management policy field.

Findings

It was found that the penetration of the project into professionals' consciousness was high in relation to other comparable projects and publications, and its impact on policy – both immediately and continuing – was profound. The FFF initiative did not create policy change, however, but facilitated its legitimation, adding impetus to what was already there, as one element of a part‐catalytic and part‐incremental process of policy evolution.

Research limitations/implications

Special circumstances, internal and external to the project, mean that this cannot be a simple model for matching research to policymakers' needs in the future.

Practical implications

Important lessons may be learnt from this project about both the methods of forward‐looking foresight‐type research, and the way that its results are disseminated to its target audiences.

Originality/value

This is an innovative attempt to assess the impact of a new type of foresight project.

Keywords

Citation

Penning‐Rowsell, E.C., Evans, E.P., Hall, J.W. and Borthwick, A.G.L. (2013), "From flood science to flood policy: the Foresight Future Flooding project seven years on", Foresight, Vol. 15 No. 3, pp. 190-210. https://doi.org/10.1108/fs-06-2012-0046

Publisher

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Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2013, Emerald Group Publishing Limited

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