Growing Presence of Real Options in Global Financial Markets: Volume 33

On May 18, 2014, AT&T Inc., the second-biggest U.S. mobile-phone carrier, agreed to acquire DirecTV, a satellite-television company, for $49 billion in cash and stock. However, the merger’s conditions and terms are complicated as the stock exchange ratio is contingent on the volume-weighted average AT&T stock price over a 30-day period that is three trading days prior to the date when the merger becomes effective.

Using a contingent claims pricing approach, we model DirecTV’s theoretical value based on the merger’s conditions and terms. It is shown that the theoretical DirecTV stock value is analogous to the sum of the present value of a cash offer, plus owning shares of the AT&T stock, and short volume-weighted average price (VWAP) call spreads. Using three different option-pricing models, DirecTV’s stock valuation model is tested with the market data. Empirical results show that on average, DirecTV’s stock was consistently priced at a discount during the sample period, and Funahashi and Kijima’s (2017) VWAP option model works better than Black and Scholes’ (1973) plain vanilla option model and Levy’s (1992) average-price option model.

Historical stock prices have long been used to evaluate a stock’s future returns as well as the risks associated with those returns. Similarly, historical dividends have been used to evaluate the intrinsic value of a stock using, among other methods, a dividend discount model. In this chapter, we propose an alternate use of the dividend discount model to enable an investor to assess the risks associated with a particular stock based on its dividend history. In traditional applications of the dividend discount model for stock valuation, the value of a stock is the net present value of its future cash dividends. We propose an alternative approach in which we calculate the internal rate of return for a stream of future cash dividends assuming the current stock price. We use a bootstrapping approach to generate a stream of future cash dividends, and use a Monte Carlo simulation approach to run multiple trials of the model. The probability distribution of the internal rates of return obtained from the simulation model provides an investor with an expected percentage return and the standard deviation of the return for the stock. This allows an investor to not only compare the expected internal rates of return for a group of stocks but to also evaluate the associated risks. We illustrate this internal rate of return approach using stocks that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

This chapter investigates the relationship between financial measures and dividend payout policy choices of firms. We examine why firms choose to pay dividends continuously, intermittently, or not pay them. Specifically, the findings provide evidence that firms with relatively larger debts tend to pay dividends less frequently than firms with smaller debts.

The results also suggest that good financial performers are more likely to pay dividends more regularly. Additionally, the results of this study indicate that highly leveraged firms tend to make less frequent payouts than lowly leveraged firms.

Overall, this research adds to our understanding of firms’ dividend payout policy choices. First, evidence on the relationship between the various types of financial measures and firms’ choice of dividend payout frequencies should be useful to investors. Second, the findings of this study provide financial statement users with useful information about the firm’s dividend payout patterns. Third, in general, it also adds to the accounting and finance literature on dividends.

The main objective of this study is to examine whether firms follow the financing hierarchy as suggested by the Pecking Order Theory (POT). The External Funds Needed (EFN) model offers a financing hierarchy that can be used for examining the POT. As far as the EFN considers growth of sales as a driver for changing capital structure, it follows that shall firms plan for a sustainable growth of sales, a sustainable financing can be reached and maintained. This study uses data about the firms listed in two indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA30) and NASDAQ100. The data cover quarterly periods from June 30, 1999, to March 31, 2012. The methodology includes (a) cointegration analysis in order to test for model specification and (b) causality analysis in order to show the generic and mutual associations between the components of EFN. The results conclude that (a) in the majority of the cases, firms plan for an increase in growth sales but not necessarily to approach sustainable rate; (b) in cases of observed and sustainable growth of sales, firms reduce debt financing persistently; (c) firms use equity financing to finance sustainable growth of sales in the long run only, while in the short run, firms use internal financing, that is, retained earnings as a flexible source of financing; and (d) the EFN model is quite useful for examining the hierarchy of financing. This study contributes to the related literature in terms of utilizing the properties of the EFN model in order to examine the practical aspects of the POT. These practical considerations are extended to examine the use of the POT in cases of observed and sustainable growth rates. The findings contribute to the current literature that there is a need to offer an adjustment to the financing order suggested by the POT. Equity financing is the first source of financing current and sustainable growth of sales, followed by retained earnings, and debt financing is the last resort.

Previous studies have shown that stock returns bear a premium for downside risk versus upside potential. We develop a new risk measure which scales the traditional CAPM beta by the ratio of the upside beta to the downside beta, thereby incorporating the effects of both upside potential and downside risk. This “modified” beta has substantial explanatory power in standard asset pricing tests, outperforming existing measures, and it is robust to various alternative modeling and estimation techniques.

Option models have provided insight into the value of flexibility to switch from one state to another (such as switching a mine or refinery from operating to closed status). More complex flexible processes offer multiple possibilities for switching states. A fabrication facility, for example, may offer options to shift from the current status to any of several alternatives (reflecting reconfiguration of basic facilities to accommodate different operating processes with different outputs). New algorithms enable practical application of complex option pricing models to flexible facilities, improving analysts’ ability to draw sound conclusions about the effects of flexibility and innovativeness on share value. Such models also apply for options with information items as the underlying assets. Information organizations such as oil exploration and development companies may include options to shift from the current capability to any of several alternatives reflecting added abilities to handle new information sources or apply the organization’s talents in new ways. In the case of either physical or information processing, careful attention to estimating the matrix of correlations among the values of potential alternative states allows explicit integration of financial analysis and strategic analysis – especially the influence of substitutes and the anticipated reactions of competitors, suppliers, and potential new entrants.

Lai, Li, Conover, and Wu (2010) propose a four-factor financial distress model to explain stock returns in the U.S. and Japanese markets. We examine this model in the stock markets of Australia, and six Asian markets (Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand). We find broad empirical support for the four-factor financial distress risk asset-pricing model in those markets. The four-factor financial distress asset pricing model improves explanatory power beyond the Fama–French (1993) three-factor asset pricing model in six of the seven Asian-Pacific markets (12 of 14 portfolio groupings), while the Carhart (1997) momentum-based asset pricing model only improves explanatory power beyond the Fama–French model in three of the seven markets (4 of 14 portfolio groupings).

We examine the maturity structure in private placements of debt and relate it to contracting, signaling, tax, and liquidity risk considerations for firms. We find that firms with higher tax rates issue private placements of debt with longer maturities, consistent with the tax hypothesis. However, our results do not support the contracting, signaling, and liquidity risk hypotheses. In addition, the results are confined to the smaller firms in the sample, firms without a public debt rating, and debt issues not pursuant to Rule 144A. The evidence is consistent with smaller firms issuing private placements of debt to avoid monopoly rent extraction from banks.

This current research tries to answer the widespread debate about the role of derivatives in propagating the last financial crisis. So, this work aims to examine the effect of derivatives on bank stability in emerging countries by using the bank stability index (BSI) as developed by Ghosh (2011) from three major dimensions of banking operations: stability, soundness, and profitability. We use the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator technique developed by Blundell and Bond (1998) to estimate regressions during the normal, the turbulent, and the whole period, following the guidance given by Chiaramonte, Poli, and Oriani (2013).

The major conclusion of this study reveals that except to futures the other derivative instruments cannot be considered as troubling factors. The main implication of the research shows that derivatives – in general – are not responsible for the propagation of the recent financial crisis. Hence, the common debate accusing derivatives as being responsible for the aggravation of the recent financial crisis should be rejected.