Energy consumption and growth in South Asia: evidence from a panel error correction model

The purpose of the paper is to empirically examine the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for a panel of five South Asian economies, namely, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal over the period from 1971 to 2010 within a multivariate framework.

The study uses Pedroni cointegration and Granger causality test based on panel vector error correction model to examine long-run equilibrium relationship and direction of causation in the short and long run between energy consumption and economic growth using energy inclusive Cobb–Douglas production function for a panel of five South Asia countries, namely India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal.

Pedroni’s panel cointegration test indicates the long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth per capita, energy consumption per capita and real gross fixed capital formation per capita for panel. Further, 1 per cent increase in energy consumption per capita increases the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita by 0.8424 per cent for the panel. Causality results suggest bidirectional causality between energy consumption per capita, gross fixed capital formation per capita and GDP per capita in the long run and unidirectional causality running from energy consumption per capita and gross fixed capital formation per capita to GDP per capita in the short run.

These South Asian countries should implement an expansionary energy policies through improving the energy infrastructure, energy efficiency measures and exploiting massive renewables’ availability for low-cost, affordable clean energy access for all, especially in the yet unserved rural and remote areas for further stimulating economic growth.

Implementing energy efficiency measures and massive renewables development (wind, solar and hydropower) may help the affordable and clean energy access and reducing fossils fuel dependence and its associated greenhouse emissions in South Asia.