Sustainable development of agriculture: a system dynamics model

Sustainable development is the management and conservation of the basic natural resources through which organizational and technological changes are lead to meet present and future needs of humans. In developing and analyzing the solutions based on sustainable development principles, an integrated and holistic approach needs to be pursued. Not only system dynamics has the essential tools for systemic analysis, but also it is an appropriate approach for perceiving problems and offering solutions. The aim of this study is to present an integrated and systemic model to analyze the existent dynamics in sustainable development of Iran’s farming industry.

To achieve the mathematical equations and values of model’s variables, a simulation is carried out using the data gathered from Damavand city, Tehran, Iran. The parameters of the model are selected and calculated considering the specifications of this case study. After modeling the system, Vensim simulation software has been employed, followed by identifying the leverage points of the model; then, a set of scenarios have been generated and tested through simulation to achieve a much improved understanding of the system’s dynamic behavior.

The results show that two factors are among the most important leverage points: “profit gained from agriculture” and “required water”. The authors could also observe that the main issue in Damavand is the lack of water for which saving policies would be a major step toward agriculture’s sustainable development in this area.

The paper shows how System Dynamics simulation approach can provide deep insights into the field of sustainable development and present efficient policies for agriculture sustainability.