Integrated and realistic approach to energy planning – a case study of Slovenia

The purpose of this paper is to present how multi-criteria methods can be used in the process of National Energy Programme development and analysis of the electricity generation planning in relatively small energy systems.

Due to dependence on many input and output parameters which can be very complex and uncertain, energy systems have become extremely difficult to analyse and use of multi-criteria decision-making methods is essential. This paper presents and compares results of the analysis of electricity generation scenarios with three widely used multi-criteria methods, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), preference ranking organisation method for enrichment evaluation (PROMETHEE) and multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT).

AHP, due to its transparency and simplicity in comparison with PROMETHEE and MAUT, is the most suitable method for the analysis of the electricity generation decision alternatives in a small energy system, such as Slovenian. The case study proposed in this research confirms that transition from environment unfriendly fossil-fuelled economy to sustainable and climate friendly development requires a realistic approach, which must be based on excellent knowledge of alternative possibilities of development and especially awareness of new opportunities in exploitation of energy efficiency and renewable energy sources.

The case study presented in this research represents a repeatable and practical application of three widely used multi-criteria methods in the process of national energy policy development. It provides a methodological approach for finding realistic solutions to the problem of the future development challenges in small energy systems.