foresight

Foresight and Anticipatory Governance : Table of Contents

Prof. Leon Fuerth — Sun Jul 05 14:15:04 BST 2009

Abstract:
Purpose - The objective was to lay a theoretical basis for discussion of the ways by which organized foresight can be employed in the service of pro-poor objectives. This is in line with the fundamental mandate of the Rockefeller Foundation, dating from its establishment.Design/methodology/approach - My objective was to capture concepts that I have been developing and teaching under the heading of "Forward Engagement." Forward Engagement is a particular approach to anticipatory governance, drawing upon complexity theory for assessment of issues requiring government policy; network theory for proposed reforms to legacy systems of governance to enable them to manage complexity under conditions of accelerating change; and cybernetic theory to propose feedback systems to allow ongoing measurement of the performance of policies against expectations. For more detail, visit www.forwardengagement.org.Findings - This paper uses the methods as identified above to sketch out some core elements of a system for anticipatory governance.Originality/value - In addition to the primary findings of Forward Engagement (see website), this paper argues that foresight and anticipatory concepts can play a vital role, not only for governance in the United States, but for governance in developing countries: perhaps even more so, because such countries have narrower margins for response to significant changes of circumstance.

Conclusion: "Foresight for Smart Globalization" Synthesis Statement and Recommendations : Table of Contents

Dr. Clement Bezold, Ms. Claudia Juech, Mr. Evan Michelson — Sun Jul 05 14:15:04 BST 2009

Abstract:
Purpose - This paper concludes this special edition on the topic of pro-poor foresight.Design/methodology/approach - Draft synthesis statement and selected recommendations to emerge from the "Foresight for Smart Globalization" workshop.Findings - There is a need for change at all levels of governance to address the challenges of global poverty, and efforts are needed to foster and improve national foresight capacities.Originality/value - Adding poverty as an explicit dimension of existing and future foresight activities is a key component of fostering pro-poor decision-making.

The Future of Science & Technology and Pro-Poor Applications : Table of Contents

Dr. Nares Damrongchai, Mr. Evan Michelson — Sun Jul 05 14:15:04 BST 2009

Abstract:
Purpose - This paper highlights the overall lack of focus of existing foresight analysis concerning the future of science and technology on the issue of poverty. The paper looks to re-orient the technology foresight community to adopting an explicit pro-poor perspective when considering future developments in science and technology (S&T).Design/methodology/approach - The paper presents a general overview of existing technology foresight studies from organizations located in the North America, Europe, and Asia. By describing the key points made in a selection of foresight studies, the paper emphasizes the conceptual links between forward-looking analysis related to S&T and poverty-related issues.Findings - The paper reaches two main conclusions about the role of S&T foresight and development. The first point is that the foresight research community needs to interact more closely with the development community in order to enhance the value of the findings in each field to the other. Second, the pressing matter of poverty alleviation requires that the foresight community should come together and create a sense of urgency in issues that have long term implications but need immediate action and attention.Research limitations/implications - This paper is limited to an approach that provides an overview of existing work in technology foresight. While no such review could be comprehensive, this paper provides examples of technology foresight analysis from a range of geographies, sectors, and perspectives to help mitigate this gap.Practical implications - The argument suggests that technology foresight practitioners should make issues of poverty an explicit topic or category of analysis in future technology foresight activities. Including poverty issues in future scenario activities would go a long way to closing this gap.Originality/value - This paper synthesizes ideas from a variety of forward-looking studies addressing the future of science and technology and identifies the need to could include poverty as a dimension for analysis in future studies. In addition, the paper provides an introduction to technology foresight work being conducted in Asia by the APEC Center for Technology Foresight.

Looking Ahead: Energy, Climate Change and Pro-Poor Responses : Table of Contents

Dr. Teresa Malyshev — Sun Jul 05 14:15:04 BST 2009

Abstract:
Purpose - This paper presents pro-poor solutions for addressing the crippling impacts of current global energy use on the world’s poorest people. In the absence of new policies, global trends in energy supply and consumption are unsustainable all around. Today, roughly 2.6 billion people use fuelwood, charcoal, agricultural waste and animal dung to meet most of their daily energy needs for cooking and heating. There are 1.6 billion people in the world without electricity, equal to over a quarter of the world population.Design/methodology/approach - This paper lays out scenarios for global energy demand and greenhouse-gas emissions and highlights the impact of these trends on developing countries. Based largely on publications and research from the International Energy Agency, it shows that better targeted subsidies, capacity building, integrated policy approaches and improvements in data collection can help to alleviate the impacts of current energy use on health and the environment.Findings - Decisive action is needed to expand energy access and to arrest the potential impacts of climate change in poor countries. It is demonstrated here that investments in programs that are tailored to promoting development and addressing climate change simultaneously can be successfully deployed.Practical implications - Originality/value - There is an urgent need for policymakers in rich and poor countries to join together and tackle the global energy and climate challenges, and, as this paper shows, pro-poor foresight is needed to ensure that these challenges are met in an equitable and sustainable way.

Foresight for Smart Globalization : Table of Contents

Mr. David Jhirad, Ms. Claudia Juech, Mr. Evan Michelson — Sun Jul 05 14:15:04 BST 2009

Abstract:
Purpose - This paper presents the concept of smart globalization and identifies links with the Rockefeller Foundation’s philanthropic activities in a number of areas, including health, climate change, urbanization, economic insecurities, and basic survival needs.Design/methodology/approach - Addresses how a new conceptualization of globalization intersects with the field of foresight by describing the Rockefeller Foundation’s approach to addressing complex issues of human development.Findings - This paper concludes that a forward looking research component is a valuable organizational structure that can add value by tracking and monitoring current and emerging trends relevant to the Foundation’s strategic framework, operational initiatives, and areas of work.Practical implications - This paper suggests a closer interaction of foresight and development experts and practitioners by suggesting that individuals in both disciplines need to work more closely together to coherently address the multitude, interlocking global challenges of the 21st Century.Originality/value - It introduces the notion of "smart globalization" to the foresight community and details how this mindset has influenced and directed the ongoing work of the Rockefeller Foundation.

Prospects for Economic Governance: Resilient Pro-Poor Growth : Table of Contents

Prof. William M. Lyakurwa — Sun Jul 05 14:15:04 BST 2009

Abstract:
Purpose - To discuss the potential of the present drivers of economic governance, trade and investment, and to also envision their intersections and cross-cutting impacts on poverty and human development.Design/methodology/approach - General review is employed to highlight scenarios shaping Africa’s economic governance; the magnitude of their impact on pro-poor growth, potential responses are identified to address African vulnerabilities to poor governance and alternative dimensions to achievable equitable future are recommended for implementing those measures as a way forward.Findings - The paper observes that changes to the policy environment should include reform in Africa’s governance and policy processes by supporting participation by a variety of actors including the poor rural farmers and women among others.Research limitations/implications - A broader literature review to support some of the recommended alternative dimensions.Practical implications - The existing economic governance structure in Africa does not include stakeholders. Changes to the policy environment should include reform in Africa’s economic governance and policy processes by supporting participation by a variety of actors including the poor rural actors (farmers and women) among other underrepresented groups.Originality/value - Using foresight and futures in discussing alternative scenarios for economic governance as relatives to poverty reductions and human development.