foresight

Incorporating network perspectives in foresight: a methodological proposal : Table of Contents

Yanuar Nugroho, Ozcan Saritas — Sat Nov 07 08:00:18 GMT 2009

Abstract:
Purpose – A particular feature that makes foresight powerful is its capability to learn from past trends to help guide decision-making for future policy. However, in studying both past and future trends, network perspectives are often missing. Since networks are capable of revealing the structure that underpins relationships between stakeholders, key issues and actions in the past, they are powerful to help envisage the future. The purpose of this paper is to propose a methodological framework to incorporate network analysis in foresight. Design/methodology/approach – The paper develops a generic framework to incorporate network analysis into foresight's five stages. Trends identified by respondents of the Big Picture Survey are used to demonstrate how we operationalize this framework. Findings – A network perspective can enrich foresight analysis in that it helps reveal structural linkages between trends and thus can better identify emerging future issues, both of which are critical in foresight. Research limitations/implications – The inclusion of network analysis can shed light on the process of understanding complex data and assist in building a model based on links and relationships. Network analysis can reveal otherwise unobservable structural features of the data and can help boundary setting discussions in foresight. Practical implications – Network concepts and measures could usefully enrich the interpretation of foresight data for further analysis, or plausible scenarios. Originality/value – Network analysis offers a new way of looking at the foresight data by disentangling complicated issue webs. As shaping the future becomes more essential because of the complexity of science, technology and society interrelationships, the incorporation of network perspectives in foresight might be one of the ways to propel future studies.

Forecasting energy storage technologies : Table of Contents

Georgina Harell, Tugrul U. Daim — Sat Nov 07 08:00:18 GMT 2009

Abstract:
Purpose – In order to compliment the growing use of renewable energies in the US, additional technologies must be employed on the bulk power system. This paper aims to forecast the most probable energy storage technologies. Design/methodology/approach – The methodology was deployed in two steps: evaluate the potential energy storage technologies that could complement a wind turbine or photovoltaic system; and forecast which of these technologies is best poised to become a viable solution to the energy storage problem facing these renewable technologies. Findings – Based on the publication and patent data, compressed air energy is set to be the fastest growing complimentary technology to wind energy. Two of these types of plants are currently in existence today as mentioned previously indicating the technology is commercially available. This technology has great potential; however, implementing this technology involves finding or creating underground airtight caverns in usable locations. Research limitations/implications – The number of variables have been limited due to the methodologies chosen for this analysis. The research can be expanded using other criteria such as cost, cost of capital, economies of scale, environmental concerns, social and political constraints. Originality/value – This paper provides an assessment that was indicated as necessary by those who identified the need for the development of energy storage technologies for future electricity generation.

Forecasting effectiveness of policy implementation strategies: working with semi-experts : Table of Contents

Nicolas D. Savio, Konstantinos Nikolopoulos — Sat Nov 07 08:00:18 GMT 2009

Abstract:
Purpose – Policy implementation strategies (PIS) are schemes designed by a government with an aim of hitting targets or attaining objectives set out by a policy. Forecasting by analogies (FBA) has been shown to be successful in situations of high uncertainty and low quantitative data as is that of PIS effectiveness forecasts. What is more, a structured approach to FBA helps the expert structure his thoughts in an organized manner before making a prediction, which is hypothesized to improve accuracy. This paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – This research suggests a semi-structured analogies (S-SA) approach for such a task. A pilot experiment was carried to test the performance of the S-SA approach in the hands of semi-experts when compared with unaided judgment (UJ). Findings – The results of the experiment showed that for this level of expertise, there is no statistical evidence to suggest any approach is better than the other. Possible explanations of this result is that analogy recall of experts was hindered by four constructs: information, complexity, worldview, and expertise. It was concluded that the structured analogies approach for forecasting PIS effectiveness must be investigated further by means of a study involving “true experts”. Research limitations/implications – The sample sizes were small. Practical implications – Forecasting PIS effectiveness is seen as an important tool for deciding upon which PIS to ultimately adopt (as there may be many available!) and this then has important implications for governmental budgeting. Originality/value – The paper offers further insight into the performance of a structured analogies approach to forecasting PIS effectiveness in the hands of individuals with a mid-level of expertise.

Uncertainty, the critical basis of risk management : Table of Contents

Jacques G. Richardson — Sat Nov 07 08:00:18 GMT 2009

Abstract:
Purpose – The objective of this paper is to scan the extent of uncertainty and hesitation in the development of plans and strategy. Design/methodology/approach – The author evokes concrete cases of risk aversion, when the action either goes ahead or is stymied by lack of certitude. The incidents cited are of practical – rather than of theoretical – connotation. Findings – This essay shows that the willful overcoming of missing assuredness may sometimes incur, in its turn, hazardous risk. Originality/value – The paper illustrates the roles of intelligence, the measurement of precaution, and the willingness or failure to gamble on the (sometimes) long shot.

Morphological prospection: profiling the shapes of things to come : Table of Contents

Joseph Voros — Sat Nov 07 08:00:18 GMT 2009

Abstract:
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is two-fold. First, to describe in detail a particular sub-class of powerful prospective methods based on the method of “morphological analysis”. And second, to extend their use to create a basis for strengthening strategic analysis and policy development. Design/methodology/approach – The paper examines the history and use of morphological methods in foresight work, and briefly describes three main “lineages” currently in use, and proposes some extensions to models of practice. Findings – Recent research in cognitive psychology suggests that requiring a detailed and systematic examination of future possibilities before a decision is made leads to more effective assessments of futures. Morphological methods, by design and construction, are perfectly suited to this, and so can form an exceptionally strong basis for thinking systematically about the future. Practical implications – The paper also describes how to go about designing a foresighting capacity based on a systematic evaluation of future systemic contexts, as well as discussing what aspects of the external environment to include in robust competitive intelligence, strategic monitoring, environmental scanning, and “horizon scanning” activities. Originality/value – The paper proposes some extensions to existing practice and describes some ways to tie the development of a strategic meta-language to clearly-targeted intelligence scanning. This paper should be of interest to anyone involved in trying to strengthen strategy development, policy planning or intelligence analysis.

Forecasting long-term paper demand in emerging markets : Table of Contents

Maija Hujala, Olli-Pekka Hilmola — Sat Nov 07 08:00:18 GMT 2009

Abstract:
Purpose – Typically, the graphic paper demand is being forecasted with the development of GDP, population and the price of paper. Recently, diffusion of information and communication technologies (ICT) has been identified as one possible driver of its consumption. It could be assumed that in emerging markets paper demand is a combination of these classical and new factors. Design/methodology/approach – The research examines the situation in the emerging Russian market with panel data regression analysis, accompanied with system dynamics simulation using Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis. So, the paper integrates different quantitative approaches to sketch long-term paper demand forecasts through different alternative scenarios. Findings – Results show that mobile telephones are complementary to both newsprint and magazine paper demand and the internet is a substitute, but these two factors are still relatively small compared to the effect of GDP per capita. Research limitations/implications – This research is limited to Russian markets, and in order to have more generalization power, it should be repeated in other emerging economies like, for example, former East European countries and Asia. However, used data in our analysis is longitudinal and has numerous observation points; therefore giving more reliability over the results. Originality/value – The research work is seminal from the methodological point of view: it incorporates numerous quantitative methods to produce demand forecast using Monte Carlo simulation. Also, research studies taking into account the impact of ICT on emerging markets concerning paper demand are rare.