Kybernetes

SMC method for online prediction in hidden Markov models : Table of Contents

Dongqing Zhang, Xuanxi Ning, Xueni Liu — Sat Nov 14 08:00:19 GMT 2009

Abstract:
Purpose – As the conventional multistep-ahead prediction may be unsuitable in some cases, the purpose of this paper is to propose a novel method based on joint probability distributions, which provides the most probable estimation for the predicted trajectory. Design/methodology/approach – Many real-time series can be modeled in hidden Markov models. In order to predict these time series online, sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method is applied for joint multistep-ahead prediction. Findings – The data of monthly national air passengers in China are analyzed, and the experimental results demonstrate that the method proposed and the corresponding online algorithms are effective. Research limitations/implications – In this paper, SMC method is applied for joint multistep-ahead prediction. However, with the increasing of prediction step, the number of particles is increasing exponentially, which means that the prediction steps cannot be too large. Practical implications – A very useful advice for researchers who study time-series forecasts. Originality/value – A novel method of multistep-ahead prediction based on joint probability distribution is proposed and SMC method is applied to prediction time series online. This paper is aimed at those researchers who focus on time-series forecasts.

Grey correlation method in the decision of bridge design plans : Table of Contents

Hao Zhan, Qinhan Fang, Weizhen Chen — Sat Nov 14 08:00:19 GMT 2009

Abstract:
Purpose – Bridge plans are a complicated grey system. It depends on various natural and social factors. The purpose of this paper is to provide a scientific method for optimization of bridge construction plan. Design/methodology/approach – Grey relational analysis (GRA) is completely new analysis method has been proposed in the grey system theory. Grey relational order can be used to describe the relation between the related factors based on data series rather than linear relation and typical distribution. First, this paper describes the basic steps and formulae of GRA. Then provides an example to show how to select best bridge construction plan with the method. Specially discusses significant influence of weight selection on decision making for a bridge plan. Findings – The optimization of bridge construction plan will be selected more reasonable and more objective with the method GRA. Research limitations/implications – This paper will be further studied on how to quantify indicators more objectively and how to decide weight factor more reasonably. Practical implications – It has significant practical value to apply GRA to optimization of bridge plans and other engineering projects. Originality/value – A scientific method-GRA has been applied to the selection of bridge plans for seeking the best comprehensive result.

Emergence in entity grammar systems : Table of Contents

Rao Zheng, Kui-Sheng Wang, Yun Wang — Sat Nov 14 08:00:19 GMT 2009

Abstract:
Purpose – Emergence is the kernel concept of complexity science. Lack of precision when people refer to “emergent properties” hinders the research of complex systems. The purpose of this paper is to develop a formal definition of emergence to make it intrinsic to a system and to integrate different views on emergence. Design/methodology/approach – Based on the modeling framework of entity grammar systems (EGS), a formal definition of emergence is proposed and a theorem is obtained for exploring the producing conditions of emergence. With the definition and theorem, three views on emergence are unified using the same formalism of EGS. Findings – The concept of emergence can be formally defined in the framework of EGS to integrate the “downward causation” and “upward causation” views of emergence and makes emergent properties intrinsic to a system. It is possible to control the production of emergence when the system is analyzed using the formalism of EGS. Originality/value – A formal definition of emergence is proposed in this paper. This work combines the modeling power of EGS with the formal analysis of emergence, which will prompt the further application of EGS in modeling, simulation, and analysis of complex systems in many fields and will provide practical tools for complexity research.

Research on four kinds of uncertain preference information aggregation approach in group decision making : Table of Contents

Zhu Jian-Jun, Liu Si-Feng, Li Li-Hong — Sat Nov 14 08:00:19 GMT 2009

Abstract:
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to aggregate different preference information in group decision-making process such as interval preference order, interval utility value, interval number reciprocal comparison matrix, and interval number complementary comparison matrix. Design/methodology/approach – First, the consistency definitions of four kinds of uncertain preference information are defined. Then, the upper- and low errors are introduced to solve the inconsistent decision-making case. Following that, the weight model for each uncertain preference is proposed, respectively. Findings – The aggregation approach based on minimal group deviation errors is suggested in order to obtain the utmost consistent opinion. In addition, the consistency judgment level and consistency extent are defined owing to the aggregation result. Research limitations/implications – The calculation scale is large, if many decision makers will attend group decision-making process. Practical implications – A very useful approach for aggregation of the different preference in group decision-making case. Originality/value – Because of differences in knowledge structure, judgment level, and individual preference, decision makers express their judgment preferences via differently structured decision-making processes. Owing to the complexity and uncertainty of decision-making problems and the fuzziness of human thought, it is unrealistic to depict complex problems in the certain preference style. For decision-making preference structures, group decision-making aggregation approaches include the aggregation on the same kind of preference structure and the different kinds of preference structures. The study on the aggregation of the same kind of preference structure has received a deal of attention, but study into the aggregation of the different kinds of uncertainty preference structures is still a new field.

Integrative performance evaluation for supply chain system based on logarithm triangular fuzzy number-AHP method : Table of Contents

Jianhua Yang — Sat Nov 14 08:00:19 GMT 2009

Abstract:
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyse the efficiency and benefits of supply chain (SC) scientifically and validate the usability of methods on performance evaluation index system. Design/methodology/approach – At the performance evaluation index, the enhanced balanced scorecards (BSC) are developed based on the BSC. Regarding society environment and future development, the construction of performance evaluation index system includes five aspects such as finance, customer service, intra-flow process, learning and development, and society development within SC. The indexes of performance evaluation system are all quantified to achieve their practical application. Another new point is that the logarithm triangular fuzzy number-analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method expanding from fuzzy environment and developing from traditional AHP method is creatively used to evaluate the integrative performance evaluation index system. Findings – The enhanced BSC and the special AHP method can overcome some disadvantages that experts directly give definite numbers when the traditional method is used to value certainty and evaluate the qualitative index. It is a scientific qualitative and quantitative evaluation tool. Research limitations/implications – Accessibility and availability of data are the main limitations affecting which model will be applied. Practical implications – This paper is a very useful method for SC managers. Originality/value – The new approach of performance evaluation index system is attempted due to structure and fuzzy sets. The paper is aimed at operational researchers, engineers and special managers.

Design, analysis and simulation of an optimal wage contract in firms : Table of Contents

Wenxia You, Xianjia Wang — Sat Nov 14 08:00:19 GMT 2009

Abstract:
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze and solve the problem of moral hazard in firms because of asymmetry information between firms and workers and to contract upon the workers' shiftless actions. Design/methodology/approach – Based on principle-agent theory and human resource management practice, an optimal dynamic wage contract model is designed. By applying simulation technology, the dynamic wage contract model is compared to the general static wage contract model and the affects made by the optimal dynamic wage contract to workers and firms are analyzed. Findings – According to the consequences of simulation, the dynamic wage contract has better characteristics and is more practical than the static one. In the dynamic wage contract, the current action of a worker has a persistent effect on the future outcome. It is proved that the dynamic wage contract is optimal to the firm. The optimal dynamic wage contract is renegation-proofness. It not only can incentive workers to work hard and help the firm achieve Pareto efficiency, but also can smooth the firm's incentive costs and reduce the risk born by workers. Originality/value – The paper provides some reasonable conclusions for the human resource management in firms.

Research on the stability of non-equigap grey control model under multiple transformations : Table of Contents

Xinping Xiao, Fuqin Li — Sat Nov 14 08:00:19 GMT 2009

Abstract:
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to deal with the ill-conditioned problem for the non-equigap GM(1,1) control model by using the method of multiple transformations. Design/methodology/approach – Owing to noises and interferences from both inside and outside of the system, many control systems contain unequal intervals and sharp variation which may result in undesirable systems instability. In order to ensure the stability and efficiency of grey forecasting control model, the data transformation for a raw series is an important and useful method for enhancing accuracy and improving ill-condition of the non-equigap GM(1,1) model. Findings – This paper discusses the quantitative relations between the multiple transformation and the parameters of the non-equigap GM(1,1) model in detail, and studies the effect of the multiple transformation on the condition number of the non-equigap GM(1,1) model. Research limitations/implications – Accessibility and availability of data are the main limitations based on which model will be applied. Practical implications – Choosing an appropriate multiple of transformation cannot only eliminate dimension, lessen computation and maintain high accuracy, but also largely reduce the condition number of the model and improve the ill-condition of non-equigap GM(1,1) model effectively. Originality/value – This paper seems to be the first to discuss the stability problems for the non-equigap GM(1,1) model.

Stochastic analysis on time scales : Table of Contents

Wang Jinbo, Peng Shiguo — Sat Nov 14 08:00:19 GMT 2009

Abstract:
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to define the related concepts and theorems about the second moment process in stochastic analysis on time scales. Design/methodology/approach – The study on stochastic analysis now includes two special conditions, namely discrete and continual conditions. However, in some cases, conditions are time scales, so that a new concept, namely stochastic analysis on time scales, is needed. Applying the time scales theory to the second moment process in stochastic analysis, related concept foundation of stochastic analysis on time scales has been established. Findings – The need for the theory about stochastic analysis on time scales is recognized. Practical implications – This is a very useful theory in related fields in future. Originality/value – Stochastic analysis on time scales expand applying fields of stochastic analysis, and will be helpful to related fields.

Weak signal detection method based on Duffing oscillator : Table of Contents

Junguo Wang, Jianzhong Zhou, Bing Peng — Sat Nov 14 08:00:19 GMT 2009

Abstract:
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to detect the periodic signal under strong noise background, and estimate its amplitude/phase. Design/methodology/approach – Melnikov method is adopted as calculating the threshold value when chaos occurs, and the detected signal is taken as a system parameter. The system's output state is changed if the parameter has a slight change near the threshold. Meantime, the phase of system's output is recognized to judge whether the output state changes, and the signal parameter is estimated according to the necessary condition. Findings – A small periodic signal in noise can be detected by Duffing oscillator via a transition from chaotic motion to periodic motion. Research limitations/implications – The paper shows how to calculate the amplitude/phase in low signal-to-noise ratios. Practical implications – The Duffing system is sensitive to the weak periodic signal and has definite immunity to noise, so it is easy to construct a system composed of many oscillators that could process complex signals, even though the environmental noise is intense. Originality/value – This paper presents a nonlinear method for detecting and extracting the weak signal.

Application of fuzzy neural network controller in hydropower generator unit : Table of Contents

Zhihuai Xiao, Jiang Guo, Hongtao Zeng, Pan Zhou, Shuqing Wang — Sat Nov 14 08:00:19 GMT 2009

Abstract:
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to develop a new hybridized controller based on fuzzy reasoning and neural network (NN) for hydropower generator unit (HGU). Design/methodology/approach – The approach contains fuzzy neural networks controller (FNNC), RBF network identification (RBFNI) and HGU system. FNNC may give control value to control HGU via fuzzy NN reasoning and computing according to HGU rotate speed error and error varying rate. RBFNI is used to identify the character of HGU system and predict its output. FNNC may adjust parameters and member function according to the identifying and predictive outcome of RBFNI. Findings – Sees that the hybridized control system is feasible and stable, and the controlling performance of the hybridized system is superior to conventional fuzzy controller. Research limitations/implications – The theoretical proof of stability of the proposed scheme still remains to be studied. Accessibility and availability of membership functions and control rules is also a limitation applied. Practical implications – The main advantage of the proposed method is that FNNC has reasoning, learning, and optimizing capability which can control effectively HGU. This will be useful for control engineers to control complex industrial plants. Originality/value – The paper proposes new combined approach to optimal control of HGU using FNNC, and it is aimed at operational researches and engineers, especially those who dealt with HUG controller.

An inexact optimization model for evacuation planning : Table of Contents

Chaozhong Wu, Gordon Huang, Xinping Yan, Yanpeng Cai, Yongping Li, Nengchao Lv — Sat Nov 14 08:00:19 GMT 2009

Abstract:
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to develop an interval method for vehicle allocation and route planning in case of an evacuation. Design/methodology/approach – First, the evacuation route planning system is described and the notations are defined. An inexact programming model is proposed. The goal of the model is to achieve optimal planning of vehicles allocation with a minimized system time under the condition of inexact information. The constraints of the model include four types: number of vehicles constraint, passengers balance constraints, maximum capacity of links constraints and no negative constraints. The model is solved through the decomposition of the inexact model. A hypothetical case is developed to illustrate the proposed model. Findings – The paper finds that the interval solutions are feasible and stable for evacuation model in the given decision space, and this may reduce the negative effects of uncertainty, thereby improving evacuation managers' estimates under different conditions. Originality/value – This method entails incorporation of uncertainties existing as interval values into model formulation and solution procedure, and application of the developed model and the related solution algorithm in a hypothetical case study.

Pansystems variation theory and its application to computer science : Table of Contents

Lihua Yu, Yuanli Xu, Qing Shi — Sat Nov 14 08:00:19 GMT 2009

Abstract:
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to establish the framework of pansystems variation theory (PVT) and discuss its principles, models, methods, and related applications to computer science. Design/methodology/approach – The PVT has been established based on the traditional variation theory from the viewpoint of pansystems theory. The theoretical foundation of PVT is pansystems variational principle. It is an interpretation or a specialized expression of relative objective regularity in the variation of things. The application layer of PVT is pansystems variational operations research (PVOR). Findings – The applications of PVT for computer science can be summarized as actualizations of PVOR: V-d(xy)=*0*/PRR'P'/0**. Originality/value – Some new ideas of PVT can illuminate the researches of computer science.

Optimal selection of design schemes for a sparse distributed pile foundation based on fuzzy optimization theory : Table of Contents

Zhang Lijuan, Li Zhangming — Sat Nov 14 08:00:19 GMT 2009

Abstract:
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to establish the optimization model of designs for sparse distributed pile foundation based on multi-goals fuzzy optimization theory, to promote the application of the optimization model into project. Design/methodology/approach – In the designing of sparse distributed pile foundation, there are many feasible design schemes, the selection of designs is a decision making of multi-goals and factors. Owing to uncertain and imprecise environment in which the designing of sparse distributed pile foundation exists, the theories of fuzzy optimization are chosen as mathematical framework to optimize the design schemes. Findings – Since relative optimal degree is used to judge, the optional result of using fuzzy optimization theories in sparse pile foundation design selection is more rational according to a site project. Research limitations/implications – The availability of data and precision of index weight selection are the main limitations as to which model will be applied. Practical implications – A very useful optimal method for the sparse pile foundation design selection. Originality/value – The new approach of optimal selection for sparse pile foundation design due to fuzzy optimization theories.

Rough set for quantitative analysis of characteristic information in metallogenic prediction : Table of Contents

Yan-bin Yuan, Ya-qiong Zhu, You Zhou, N.R. Sælthun, Wei Cui, Jiejun Huang — Sat Nov 14 08:00:19 GMT 2009

Abstract:
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to extract the characterized mineralization information from large numbers of data obtained from geologic exploration based on rough set; analyze the inherent relation between mineral information genes and metallogenic probability, and offer the scientific basis for target prediction. Design/methodology/approach – Mineral information includes all kinds of relative metallogenic information. In order to extract comprehensive metallogenic prediction information, it is necessary to filter initial observation information to emphasize the factors that are most advantageous to metallogenic prognosis. Rough set can delete irrespective or unimportant attributes on the premises of no information missing and no classification ability changing, without supplementary information or prior knowledge, which has important theoretic and practical value for metallogenic prognosis. Findings – The association and importance of geological information referring to prospecting are found out through attribute reduction based on rough set. Originality/value – The analysis of geological and mineral information based on rough set is a novel approach for high-dimensional complex non-deterministic polynomial problems which are predominant in geological research. The research successfully extracts characterized mineralization information to offer the scientific basis for target prediction.

An FPTAS for SM-CELS problem with monotone cost functions : Table of Contents

Jianteng Xu, Qingpu Zhang, Qingguo Bai — Sat Nov 14 08:00:19 GMT 2009

Abstract:
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to find the best approximation algorithm for solving the more general case of single-supplier multi-retailer capacitated economic lot-sizing (SM-CELS) problem in deterministic inventory theory, which is the non-deterministic polynomial (NP)-hard problem. Design/methodology/approach – Since few theoretical results have been published on polynomial time approximation algorithms for SM-CELS problems, this paper develops a fully polynomial time approximation scheme (FPTAS) for the problem with monotone production and holding-backlogging cost functions. First the optimal solution of a rounded problem is presented as the approximate solution and its straightforward dynamic-programming (DP) algorithm. Then the straightforward DP algorithm is converted into an FPTAS by exploiting combinatorial properties of the recursive function. Findings – An FPTAS is designed for the SM-CELS problem with monotone cost functions, which is the strongest polynomial time approximation result. Research limitations/implications – The main limitation is that the supplier only manufactures without holding any products when the model is applied. Practical implications – The paper presents the best result for the SM-CELS problem in deterministic inventory theory. Originality/value – The LP-rounding technique, an effective approach to design approximation algorithms for NP-hard problems, is successfully applied to the SM-CELS problem in this paper.

Application of the stepping stress acceleration life test in the product storage life forecast : Table of Contents

Pengcheng Yan, Dongqing Liu, Bo Zheng — Sat Nov 14 08:00:19 GMT 2009

Abstract:
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to forecast the reliable storage life of a certain kind of equipment under the normal stress level. Design/methodology/approach – Through the stepping stress acceleration life test and the failure mechanism analysis, this paper aims to confirm the stress level for the stepping stress acceleration life test of a certain kind of equipment and establish the data processing mathematical model and storage life forecasting method. Findings – The stress level for the stepping stress acceleration life test of a certain kind of equipment is confirmed and the data processing mathematical model and storage life forecasting method is established. Research limitations/implications – Availability of data is the main limitation affecting which model will be applied. Practical implications – Useful advice for products' storage life forecasting. Originality/value – The paper presents a new approach to product storage life estimation.

On the broad-spectrum analysis of general system theory : Table of Contents

Yu-xiang Zhang — Sat Nov 14 08:00:19 GMT 2009

Abstract:
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to give broad-spectrum analysis of general system theory, including the researching approach – dynamic structure approach, the study on general object system by broad-spectrum analysis, and the study of general cognitive system by broad-spectrum analysis, etc. Design/methodology/approach – The theoretical basis of broad-spectrum analysis is dynamic structuralism, which, therefore, leads to the fact that its methodology is dynamic structural methodology, including that from the perspective of generalized structure, that from the dynamic perspective (the fluxional viewpoint of structure and the transforming viewpoint of structure). Findings – Generalized structural models of general object system (including general thing system and general dynamic system, general cognitive system and general value system) are given in this paper. It shows a unique perspective of broad-spectrum analysis, its close relationship with general system theory and the viewpoints of many questions in general system. Research limitations/implications – The details of the structural models in this paper have to be worked out. Practical implications – The methodological principle for us to analyze, study, optimize, and control the general system is provided. Originality/value – Generalized structural models of this paper originate from pansystem methodology and discrete mathematics. This paper has the value of methodology for those who are studying general systems.

Analysis of non-Rayleigh reverberation model with ocean experiment data in coastal area : Table of Contents

Qiang Wang, Xianyi Gong — Sat Nov 14 08:00:19 GMT 2009

Abstract:
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to improve active sonar detection performance in shallow water. A stochastic-like model multivariate elliptically contoured (MEC) distributions is defined to model reverberation, which helps to reveal structure information of target signatures. Design/methodology/approach – Active sonar systems have been developed with wider transmission bandwidths and larger aperture receiving array, which improve the signal-to-noise ratio and reverberation power ratio after matched filtering and beamforming. But, it has changed the statistical distribution of the reverberation-induced envelope from the traditionally assumed Rayleigh distribution. The MEC is a kind of generalized non-Gaussian distribution model. The authors theoretically derive the compound Gaussian, Rayleigh-mixture, Weibull, K distributions are all special cases of MEC. It is known that Weibull and K distributions have obvious heavy-tail than Rayleigh distribution. MEC is a suitable model to characterize non-Rayleigh heavy-tailed distribution of reverberation. Findings – The analysis of test data shows reverberation envelopes obviously deviate Rayleigh distribution. In a broad non-Gaussian framework, reverberation is modelled as MEC distribution, which is suitable to characterize non-Rayleigh reverberation. The received data in trials validate the effectiveness of MEC model. The real data envelops follows K distribution, which is a special case of MEC. So, the MEC can be applied to develop novel signal-processing algorithms that mitigate or account for the effects of the heavy-tailed reverberation distributions on the target detection. Research limitations/implications – The limited sea test data are the main limitation to prove model validation in further. Practical implications – A very useful model for representing reverberation in shallow-water. Originality/value – The MECs in fact represent an attractive set data model for adaptive array, and it provides a theoretic framework to design an optimal or sub-optimal detector.

A formal method for integrating distributed ontologies and reducing the redundant relations : Table of Contents

Junwu Zhu, Jiandong Wang, Bin Li — Sat Nov 14 08:00:19 GMT 2009

Abstract:
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to integrate distributed ontologies on the web system and clarify the structure of the integrated one. Design/methodology/approach – A formal method based on concept lattices is introduced as a mechanism to form more general semantic level. By checking the extension and the intension of concept, this method extracts the concept pairs satisfying inclusion relations from descartes' set of concepts in distributed ontologies first, and then constructs a concept lattice according to these concept pairs. An algorithm to reduce redundant relations is also proposed to clarify the structure of integrated ontology. Findings – The experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method to reduce redundant relations, and the Nir-to-Ncr ratio inclines to 1.05 from 3.13. Research limitations/implications – Instances of certain concept are not given completely on the web, so it is difficult to check extension of different concepts. Practical implications – A very useful method of integrating distributed ontologies on the web. Originality/value – Compared with existing methods, this formal method can be performed by program automatically without any human intervening, and can extract the inclusion relations between concepts from distributed ontologies completely.

Research on insulation detection of insulator strings with fuzzy logical reasoning method : Table of Contents

Xiaoning Xu, Yixiong Nie, Xiangang Peng — Sat Nov 14 08:00:19 GMT 2009

Abstract:
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to introduce the realizing process of the fuzzy logical reasoning method in relation to the insulation detection of insulator strings, especially about the establishment of the fuzzy relation matrix. Design/methodology/approach – Utilizing fuzzy logical reasoning method, the online fault diagnosis of the transmission line insulator strings can be realized efficiently, although the insulation status of the insulator strings is influenced by many factors and the relation between the measured electric parameters about the insulator with the degree of the deterioration is ambiguous. Findings – Utilizing the pattern recognition method to build the fuzzy relation matrix after choosing the probability of the corona current, the root-mean-square value and the peak value and the pulse frequency of the leakage current as the fuzzy operating input variables, using the fuzzy reasoning method to estimate the insulation status proves to be a practical approach. Practical implications – The experiments verify the correctness of this method by simulating work conditions of insulator strings on an 110?kV transmission line. Originality/value – This paper proves that using the fuzzy reasoning method to estimate the insulation status of the online insulator strings is a practical approach. The results of the laboratory and the field tests verify the correctness of this approach and the validity of the identification method to build the fuzzy relation matrix.

Stochastic model analysis on train agents communication : Table of Contents

Yanmei Yang, Hongsheng Su, Kan Wang — Sat Nov 14 08:00:19 GMT 2009

Abstract:
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the reliable and steady working conditions of train agent systems while connected to the internet. The train agents can provide more accurate assistant navigation service and more useful “live” information service to ensure traveling crane safety. However, all these services seriously rely on reliability and stability of communication quality of the train agents. To ensure the stable and continuous work of the train agents, the stochastic model of the train agent communication is investigated in this paper. Design/methodology/approach – According to Markov theory, the stochastic model of the train agent communication is established, the reliability of which is also investigated, the availability and mean-link interruption times in steady state are then given out. Findings – In the end, the steady working condition and controllability of the train agents are discussed. Research limitations/implications – The correctness of the mathematic model in the main limitation based on which the model will be applied. Practical implications – A very useful model for the train agent systems description. Originality/value – From the angle of stochastic model, the steady working condition and controllability of the train agent are given out connected to the internet. It has enormous instruction significance to those special mobile agents design such as the train agents, the plane agents, the ship agents, etc.

Application of neural network combined genetic algorithm to rank the development priority of heavy oil reservoirs : Table of Contents

Xiaodong Wu, Junfeng Shi, Fujun Chen, Yaru Wang — Sat Nov 14 08:00:19 GMT 2009

Abstract:
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present a new approach for selecting the good heavy oil reservoirs to develop preferentially, which can avoid the huge economical loss resulted from wrong decision. Design/methodology/approach – A new method of ranking the development priority of heavy oil reservoir is present, in which the neural network is applied for the first time to acquire reservoir parameters' weights through training samples and the genetic algorithm is used to optimize the joint weighs of neurons in case that neural network falling into local minimum. Additionally, the paper establishes subordinate function of every parameter. Eventually, comprehensive evaluation values of all heavy oil reservoirs are obtained. Findings – The method can ensure the veracity and creditability of the parameters' weights, avoid the randomicity brought by experts. Research limitations/implications – Accessibility of the data of many heavy oil reservoirs is the main limitation. Practical implications – A very useful and new method for the decision makers of heavy oil reservoirs development. Originality/value – The new approach of ranking the development priority of heavy oil reservoir based on the neural network and the genetic algorithm. The paper is aimed at the leaders who manage the development of heavy oil reservoirs.

The fuzzy adaptation control method and its application of a kind of nonlinear system : Table of Contents

Xueli Wu, Xianghui Lu, Hua Meng, Ran Zhen, Fanhua Meng — Sat Nov 14 08:00:19 GMT 2009

Abstract:
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose a kind of fuzzy adaptive control method to control non-linear system that has the characteristic of small time delay and fast respond speed. Design/methodology/approach – The paper analyzes the production process and the actual condition of the preheat process of the plating zinc and painting plastic scribbled of double layer welded pipe that has the small time delay and fast respond speed, and also gives the preheat process mathematical model. Fuzzy adaptive control method with hierarchical structure is used which aims at one non-linear system that has the characteristic of small time delay and fast responds speed. Through the simulation, it proves the mentioned method is effective to control the temperature system for double layers welded pipe in welding process. Findings – Based on the mathematical model proposed about the production process and the actual condition of the preheat process, the fuzzy adaptive control method is effective to control the temperature system for double layers welded pipe in welding process. Research limitations/implications – The paper proposes fuzzy adaptive control method with hierarchical structure which has the basic fuzzy control grade, adaptive adjust grade, and process state judgment grade. Practical implications – A very useful method in welding process for double layers welded pipe. Originality/value – The new mathematical model is proposed about the production process, and the new control method is used in the temperature system for double layers welded pipe in welding process.

Self-organizing data mining research on the decision support system for environmental evolution analysis : Table of Contents

Zhang Shuhong, Chen Mianyun — Sat Nov 14 08:00:19 GMT 2009

Abstract:
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to select the main impact factors of environment change automatically and identify and analyze the potential environmental impact factors with time delay by computer simulation, analyzing the impact rate of environmental impact factors. Then, the environmental impact factors analysis decision support system based on self-organizing data mining model is designed. Design/methodology/approach – Applying data mining methods in the analysis and decision making of regional environmental impact factors will have broad perspective. Self-organization data mining is a new modeling method of complex systems modeling with strong modeling capability. It was first presented by A.G. Ivakhnenko, based on the principle of self-organization of biological cybernetics and Kolmogoorov-Gabor polynomial function. In this paper, the impact factors of regional environment quality evolution based on self-organization data mining method is studied, selecting the main impact factors of environment change automatically by computer simulation, analyzing the impact contribution rate of environmental impact factors. Findings – The environmental impact factors analysis decision support system based on self-organizing data mining model is designed. Research limitations/implications – Accessibility and availability of data are the main limitations affecting which model will be applied. Practical implications – The paper has important theoretical and practical significance for the sustainable development of regional environment, resource, economy system and the constitution of environmental protection and management measures. Originality/value – This paper not only exploits new application domains of self-organization data mining, but also explores new ways for regional environment impact factors analysis.

The application of the Smith predictor with PSO in HAGC system : Table of Contents

Xiaolan Yao, Xiangtao Yu, Qinghe Wu, Qihong Liang — Sat Nov 14 08:00:19 GMT 2009

Abstract:
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to solve the problem of a pure time delay in the hydraulic automatic gauge control (HAGC) system. Design/methodology/approach – Smith predictor is selected to solve pure time delay of the HAGC system. The model of thickness predictor is identified by the extended recursive least square algorithm. The parameters of controller are adjusted by particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO). The simulation result shows that the Smith predictor has good response performance and anti-disturbances ability. Findings – The control precision of the HAGC system in the finished mill can be obviously improved by Smith predictor with PSO arithmetic. The Smith predictor with PSO arithmetic is suitable to solve the pure time delay in the HAGC system. Research limitations/implications – Randomicity in rolling process and the effect of other mill stands are the main limitations based on which the model will be applied. Practical implications – A very useful method to improve the precision of the strip. Originality/value – This paper presents a new method of Smith predictor with PSO arithmetic is designed for a HAGC system in the finished mill to solve a pure time delay problem. The object model is acquired by system identification method.

Research on the multiple transformation property of a series of grey models : Table of Contents

Nai-Ming Xie, Si-Feng Liu — Sat Nov 14 08:00:19 GMT 2009

Abstract:
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to study the parameters' properties of GM(n, h) model on the basis of multiple transformation and the relationship of GM(n, h) model and other grey models. Design/methodology/approach – Multiple transformation property of parameters is important to construct a grey model. However, there is no research on the property of GM(n, h) model, therefore it is meaningful to study the relationship between GM(n, h) model and other grey models. Findings – The multiple transformation property of parameters of GM(n, h) model is recognized. The parameters' value is dependent on multiple transformation value. The values of simulative and predicative are only dependent to the multiple transformation of the main variable and independent to other variables. Research limitations/implications – The properties of other grey models could be obtained by analyzing the property of GM(n, h) model. Practical implications – It is a very useful result for constructing a grey model. Originality/value – This paper discusses multiple transformation property of GM(n, h) model and the relationship between the GM(n, h) model and other grey models. These grey models are put into a common model and the affections that parameters' multiple transformation caused to the model are studied.

Basis for STM solution of quantum control problems: Normalization and matrix representation : Table of Contents

Yifan Xing, Xice Sun, Diyang Chu, Zhi Wang, Jun Wu — Sat Nov 14 08:00:19 GMT 2009

Abstract:
Purpose – This purpose of this paper is to present a new approach of solving quantum control problem. Design/methodology/approach – State-transition-matrix (STM) is used to solute quantum control problem. Findings – The paper obtains the matrix representation for wave function, normalization, and some other quantum operators, and then gives the possible methods to establish the STM model and solve it. Originality/value – Based on this, many tools of the widely used control theory can be adopted to denote or analyze the quantum system.

Similarity model of chaos phase space and its application in mid- and long-term hydrologic prediction : Table of Contents

Liping Zhang, Jun Xia, Xingyuan Song, Xiaofeng Cheng — Sat Nov 14 08:00:19 GMT 2009

Abstract:
Purpose – With frequent floods occurring, and the fast economic development in China, attention must be paid to flood prevention, water supply, and forecasting precision. In particular, mid- and long-term runoff prediction is being paid more and more attention by researchers, and it is also the most difficult problem to solve. The purpose of this paper is to apply chaos phase space theory to forecast river run off. Design/methodology/approach – Because the hydrologic system is a complicated huge system, there exist high non-linear characteristics in the space-time change of hydrologic factors. According to theory of chaotic phase space, the paper established four models of the single-point, multi-point, lineal, and three-parameter D(m,t,k) models, they have stronger non-linear mapping function and much more information in the time series than traditional ways. Findings – The results of calculation show that the models are highly effective and worthy of popularization and application. It is reasonable and superior to use these models in mid- and long-term hydrologic prediction. Research limitations/implications – The method cannot reduce or eliminate the un-prediction parts caused by the inner random factors, such as the noise information of the observed data. Practical implications – The models are applied in the long-term runoff prediction of Baishan reservoir. Originality/value – The new approach of hydrology forecasting due to the theory of chaotic phase space. The paper is aimed at hydrology forecasting researches and engineers, especially those who dealt with the mid- and long-term prediction.