Scenario Analysis in the Elbe River Basin as Part of Integrated Assessment

Abstract

This chapter describes the scenario technique used for the integrative methodological approach (IMA) of the German global change project GLOWA Elbe. It is outlined how regional scenarios are systematically derived to analyze water use conflicts and their resolution in the context of global change for the German Elbe river basin. Through the combination of frameworks of development and policy strategies a consistent set of developmental scenarios can be generated that makes it possible to examine the regional impact of policy strategies under conditions of different future global change development paths. The scenario analysis of the framework of development starts on the global level with qualitative IPCC storylines, translates them to the regional level, and quantifies their regional effects by means of modeling and statistical estimation methods. The policy strategies are derived in close cooperation with regional stakeholders.

Citation

Messner, F. (2007), "Scenario Analysis in the Elbe River Basin as Part of Integrated Assessment", Erickson, J.D., Messner, F. and Ring, I. (Ed.) Ecological Economics of Sustainable Watershed Management (Advances in the Economics of Environmental Resources, Vol. 7), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 69-96. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1569-3740(07)07004-6