Property cycles in the UK: an empirical investigation of the stylized facts

Abstract

Applies the methodology adopted in contemporary business cycle research on establishing the stylized facts of aggregate output fluctuations, in the context of the office, industrial and retail building cycle. The objective of the study is to identify the degree to which cyclical regularities, which are in conformity with theoretical modelling, are identified across property sectors. Undertakes a statistical analysis of the cyclical properties of certain variables in relation to the building cycle in the respective commercial property sectors. The variables considered capture real economic conditions and trends in both the property and investment markets. The findings illustrate that certain variables display a cyclical pattern in relation to the property cycles which is in accordance with theoretical intuition. They also show that either other variables do not display any cyclical relationship to the commercial building cycles or the relationship does not conform to the predictions of the existing theoretical treatment of property development.

Citation

McGough, T. and Tsolacos, S. (1995), "Property cycles in the UK: an empirical investigation of the stylized facts", Journal of Property Finance, Vol. 6 No. 4, pp. 45-62. https://doi.org/10.1108/09588689510104060