Forecasting the Future of Video Using a Diffusion Model

Abstract

Traces the development of video technology and predicts the future for the medium by using a diffusion model. Defines the diffusion process and analyses four key elements: The innovation; Communication of the innovation among individuals; The social system; Time. Outlines different types of innovation which can be adapted to the diffusion process. Examines factors determining the growth in popularity of video, including the lowering of price, and the increase in rental availability. Explores the advantages and disadvantages of video cassettes versus video discs. Concludes that the market is still in its infancy, and as such is volatile. Asserts that manufacturers need to adopt careful marketing plans to continue attracting customers.

Citation

Lancaster, G.A. and Wright, G. (1983), "Forecasting the Future of Video Using a Diffusion Model", European Journal of Marketing, Vol. 17 No. 2, pp. 70-79. https://doi.org/10.1108/EUM0000000004829