The future role of logistics for global wealth – scenarios and discontinuities until 2025
Abstract
Purpose
The aim is to present research results on global logistics scenarios 2025 with focus on the future contribution the logistics industry can make to the triple bottom line – people, planet and profit.
Design/methodology/approach
The research was conducted within the scope of an interdisciplinary foresight conference, where a group of 216 renowned persons from 16 countries in business, academia and politics discussed policies and strategies for the future role of logistics as an enabler and driver of global wealth. Attendants were asked to share their visions of the future via a real-time Delphi study. The results were further discussed in futures workshops according to World Café methodology for group dialog.
Findings
Based on extensive desk research of scenario studies, expert workshops, and creative sessions, the authors developed 20 key Delphi projections for global logistics in 2025. Experts were asked to rate the projection's probability, impact, and desirability as well as to provide reasons for all answers via the Delphi online-portal. Key topics of the Delphi-based scenarios include global health care supply chains, resource logistics (urban mining), water transportation, energy supply, and education. Moreover, the authors analysed discontinuities in global logistics, such as pandemics, conflicts, and resource crises.
Originality/value
The increasing impact of logistics on a nation's and company's success underlines the importance of future-oriented and sustainable planning in this field. With this research endeavor, the authors provide insights in action needed to be taken by industry, politics and academia in order to leverage the full potentials of logistics and support the economic development of the world.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank in particular Dr Stefan Walter, Florian Schick, Rafael Belzer and Janice Magel for their valuable support and assistance. Further, they would also like to thank all participants of the Delphi study as well as the international futures conference. Received 1 May 2012. Revised 1 May 2012. Accepted 12 September 2012.
Citation
A. von der Gracht, H. and Darkow, I.-L. (2013), "The future role of logistics for global wealth – scenarios and discontinuities until 2025", Foresight, Vol. 15 No. 5, pp. 405-419. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-05-2012-0031
Publisher
:Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2013, Emerald Group Publishing Limited