GM(1, 1) forecast under function cot x transformation

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to find an effective and standardized function transformation method to apply in both high-growth original data sequences and low-growth original data sequences, which can improve the accuracy of model prediction in GM(1, 1) forecast.

Design/methodology/approach

In GM(1, 1) forecast, many original data sequences need to meet the quasi-exponential characteristic by methods of function transformation. However, many methods of function transformation have complex transformation processes or narrow application range. On the basis of the research results of Ye and Li, the paper presents a standardized approach based on to original data sequences and designs four situations of the standardized approach. By using high-growth and low-growth original data sequences as the objects, respectively, the paper verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method and compares the forecasting effects of GM(1, 1) based on function transformation with the original GM(1, 1).

Findings

Most of the results show that function transformations can improve the accuracy of the conventional GM(1, 1) forecast, and transform is a powerful tool to effectively process original data sequence of GM(1, 1) modeling.

Practical implications

GM(1, 1) forecast have been widely used in many fields such as agriculture, economy, meteorology, and geology. The proposed method in this paper can effectively apply to prediction of high-growth original data sequences and low-growth original data sequences, to some extent, enrich and deepen application of GM(1, 1) forecast.

Originality/value

The paper succeeds in providing a standardized approach based on and designs four intensity levels for different data sequences based on the standardized approach.

Citation

Ye, J., Li, B. and Liu, F. (2013), "GM(1, 1) forecast under function cot x transformation", Grey Systems: Theory and Application, Vol. 3 No. 3, pp. 236-249. https://doi.org/10.1108/GS-08-2013-0019