Impact of climate change on the precipitation pattern of district Sargodha, Pakistan

Abstract

Purpose

Spatio-temporal variations in precipitation pattern of district Sargodha is one of the most significant researchable questions because of the massive reliance on rainfall for agricultural practice in the study area. The pattern of current rainfall in the study area is unexpectedly changed. The purpose of the present study is to examine the changing precipitation pattern and to link it with climate change.

Design/methodology/approach

The study was conducted by using rainfall data of the past 30 years collected from 8 meteorological stations around the study area. The averages of rainfall on monthly basis were temporally arranged, and the fluctuation trends were studied using GIS and statistics. The temporal data of rainfall were compared and contrasted with the precipitation normals of the study area from 1981to 2010. The rainfall deviation in the present study was calculated. The spatial pattern of rainfall was plotted by interpolating the eight points of Punjab around the study area for the first two decades, whereas the past decade was analysed by incorporating five more points of Tehsils in the existing eight. The spatial and statistical representation of data were examined by compare and contrast with the previous findings.

Findings

The rainfall in the study area showed remarkable changes in magnitude and spatiality. The rainfall in the district is on the rise, whereas the spatial pattern of rainfall is becoming more complex and anomalous in character. This paper provides convincing evidence about the impact of climate change on the magnitude and spatial patterns of precipitation in the study area.

Practical implications

It will be helpful for understanding the shifts in the rainfall pattern in future as well as for the preparation of response to the issue of climate change and its impacts.

Originality/value

The current manuscript, for the very first time, provided detailed insights about the precipitation pattern shifting during the last 30 years in district Sargodha, Punjab, Pakistan. Furthermore, agricultural sector would likely get severally affected because of seasonal changes in climatic factors like rainfall and have strong food security implications. The current findings will be useful to manage the climate change-related issues in Pakistan and helpful for the policy makers to design a coping strategy for climate change impacts.

Citation

Mobeen, M., Ahmed, H., Ullah, F., Riaz, M.O., Mustafa, I., Khan, M.R. and Hanif, M.U. (2017), "Impact of climate change on the precipitation pattern of district Sargodha, Pakistan", International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, Vol. 9 No. 1, pp. 21-35. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-10-2015-0147