Governance quality and momentum returns: international evidence

Abstract

Purpose

Momentum returns are considered an anomaly in the finance literature as their existence cannot be fully explained under the asset pricing paradigm. This study attempts to shed more light on this anomaly by investigating the determinants of momentum returns.

Design/methodology/approach

The panel data technique is applied to the sample of 40 countries worldwide from 1996 to 2018. The authors use the panel-corrected standard error (PCSE) model to estimate the coefficient of World Governance Indicators (WGI), whereas the fixed effect model is used to determine the coefficient for corporate governance indicators (CGIs). The choice of PCSE estimation methods is guided by the fact that WGI variables are subjected to serial correlation, heteroskedasticity and cross-sectional dependence problems while CGI variables are not. Furthermore, a composite WGI index is constructed using principal component analysis (PCA).

Findings

Regression analysis shows a negative and significant relationship between WGI index and momentum returns. The negative coefficient value of WGI supports the prediction of the overreaction hypothesis, which postulates a lower behavioral bias in the market with high governance quality. Breaking down of the WGI by their six indicators reveals that four of the indicators (control over corruption, government effectiveness, stability and avoidance of violence) are negative statistically significant with momentum returns while two indicators are not significant. As for CGIs, only one (strength of investor protection) of the four tested indicators is negative and significantly related to momentum returns.

Originality/value

The study fills the gap in economic literature by highlighting the association between governance quality at the country (WGI) and firm level (CGI) on stock momentum returns.

Citation

Imran, Z.A., Wong, W.C. and Binti Ismail, R. (2022), "Governance quality and momentum returns: international evidence", Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEAS-10-2021-0218