Risk and returns in Shari’ah-compliant cross-section stocks: evidence from an emerging market

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to understand and document the impact of market-based – market returns and momentum – as well as firm-specific – size, book-to-market (B/M) ratio, price-to-earnings ratio (PER) and cash flow (CF) – factors on pricing of Shari’ah-compliant securities as explanation of variations in stock returns in an emerging market – Pakistan’s Karachi Stock Exchange.

Design/methodology/approach

Initially, the authors test Fama and French (FF) three-factor model – market risk premium, size and B/M – followed by modified FF model by including additional risk factors (PER, CF and momentum) over a 10-year period (2001-2010).

Findings

Our results support superiority of FF three-factor model over single-factor capital asset pricing model. However, addition of further risk factors – including PER, CF and momentum – improves explanatory power of the model, as well as refines the selection of risk factors. In this study, CF, B/M and momentum factors remain insignificant. Traditional B/M factor in FF model is replaced by PER.

Practical implications

Based on the modified FF model, the authors propose a stock valuation model for Shari’ah-compliant securities consisting of three factors: market returns, size and earnings, which explains 76per cent variations in cross sectional stock returns.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study (which combines market-based as well as fundamental factors) on pricing of Islamic securities and identification of risk factors in an emerging market – Karachi Stock Exchange.

Citation

Hanif, M., Iqbal, A. and Shah, Z. (2019), "Risk and returns in Shari’ah-compliant cross-section stocks: evidence from an emerging market", Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, Vol. 10 No. 5, pp. 621-643. https://doi.org/10.1108/JIABR-03-2016-0030