Risk response decisions for projects in project portfolios considering objective adjustments and project interdependencies

Abstract

Purpose

Risk response decisions (RRDs) are vital for project risk mitigation. Although past research has focused on RRDs for independent single projects, it has scarcely explored how to make RRDs for single projects in project portfolios (SPPPs). Consequently, this study aims to bridge the gap in extant literature by developing an integrated approach to select risk response strategies (RRSs) for SPPPs considering objective adjustments and project interdependencies (PIs).

Design/methodology/approach

An integrated quality function deployment (QFD) method was used throughout this study. More so, a balanced score card (BSC) and stratified-Z-numbers-full consistency method (SZFUCOM) was applied to identify SPPP success criteria (SP3SC) to determine their weights. In addition, a spherical fuzzy set-design structure matrix (SFDSM) was used to quantify the correlation between the risks and the relationship between the risks and the predecessor projects. Consequently, the relationships between the risks and SP3SC and RRSs were described by the spherical fuzzy set (SFS) and Z-numbers, respectively. Besides, the results are weaved into QFD to transform SP3SC into risks and then into RRSs, while a linear optimization model is used to obtain the optimal RRSs. Lastly, a construction project portfolio (PP) was used to test the veracity of the results to prove their validity.

Findings

The approach to RRDs for single projects is observed to be different from that of SPPPs. In addition, this study finds that project portfolio objective adjustments (PPOAs) and PIs have significant impacts on RRDs given that they influence the risk priorities of independent single projects and SPPPs. Moreover, the application of an integrated QFD effectively synthesized the results from the findings of this study, as well as enabled companies to determine robust RRSs. Finally, the consistency results of the SZFUCOM were better than those of the triangular fuzzy number-full consistency method.

Originality/value

The study innovatively explores the method of RRDs for SPPP, which has been ignored by past research. SP3SC highly compatible with PP success is determined. Z-numbers are first used to evaluate the effect of RRSs to enhance the robustness of RRDs. The study proposes a method of RRDs comprehensively considering PPOAs and PIs, which provides robust methodological guidance for SPPP managers to control risks.

Citation

Zhang, X., Goh, M., Bai, S. and Wang, Z. (2023), "Risk response decisions for projects in project portfolios considering objective adjustments and project interdependencies", Kybernetes, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://doi.org/10.1108/K-09-2022-1344