Fluctuation and forecasting of gold prices in Saudi Arabia’s market

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to analyze the fluctuations in gold prices within the Saudi Arabian market and to develop a reliable forecasting model to aid market participants and policymakers in making informed decisions.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, we employ a rigorous time series analysis methodology, including the ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) model, to analyze historical gold price data in the Saudi Arabian market. The approach involves identifying optimal model parameters and assessing forecast accuracy to provide actionable insights for market participants.

Findings

The study showcases that the autoregressive properties of past gold prices play a pivotal role in capturing the inherent serial correlation within the market, enabling the ARIMA model to effectively forecast future gold price movements with accuracy.

Research limitations/implications

Our study primarily focuses on quantitative analysis, whereas few qualitative parameters are not included. Future studies may benefit from incorporating qualitative factors and expert opinions to enhance the robustness of gold price predictions and capture the full spectrum of market dynamics.

Social implications

Participants and policymakers may find this study helpful in navigating the complicated Saudi Arabian gold market. By understanding financial stability and investment decisions more thoroughly, individuals and institutions may be able to manage their portfolios more effectively.

Originality/value

By combining historical insights with advanced ARIMA modeling techniques, this research provides valuable insight into gold price dynamics in the Saudi Arabian market.

Citation

Khan, R. (2024), "Fluctuation and forecasting of gold prices in Saudi Arabia’s market", Kybernetes, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://doi.org/10.1108/K-09-2023-1725