Entrepreneurial borrowing overdue prediction based on stacking model transfer learning

Abstract

Purpose

By introducing Stacking algorithm to solve the underfitting problem caused by insufficient data in traditional machine learning, this paper provides a new solution to the cold start problem of entrepreneurial borrowing risk control.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors introduce semi-supervised learning and integrated learning into the field of migration learning, and innovatively propose the Stacking model migration learning, which can independently train models on entrepreneurial borrowing credit data, and then use the migration strategy itself as the learning object, and use the Stacking algorithm to combine the prediction results of the source domain model and the target domain model.

Findings

The effectiveness of the two migration learning models is evaluated with real data from an entrepreneurial borrowing. The algorithmic performance of the Stacking-based model migration learning is further improved compared to the benchmark model without migration learning techniques, with the model area under curve value rising to 0.8. Comparing the two migration learning models reveals that the model-based migration learning approach performs better. The reason for this is that the sample-based migration learning approach only eliminates the noisy samples that are relatively less similar to the entrepreneurial borrowing data. However, the calculation of similarity and the weighing of similarity are subjective, and there is no unified judgment standard and operation method, so there is no guarantee that the retained traditional credit samples have the same sample distribution and feature structure as the entrepreneurial borrowing data.

Practical implications

From a practical standpoint, on the one hand, it provides a new solution to the cold start problem of entrepreneurial borrowing risk control. The small number of labeled high-quality samples cannot support the learning and deployment of big data risk control models, which is the cold start problem of the entrepreneurial borrowing risk control system. By extending the training sample set with auxiliary domain data through suitable migration learning methods, the prediction performance of the model can be improved to a certain extent and more generalized laws can be learned.

Originality/value

This paper introduces the thought method of migration learning to the entrepreneurial borrowing scenario, provides a new solution to the cold start problem of the entrepreneurial borrowing risk control system and verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the migration learning method applied in the risk control field through empirical data.

Citation

Shengdong, M., Yunjie, L. and Jijian, G. (2023), "Entrepreneurial borrowing overdue prediction based on stacking model transfer learning", Management Decision, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://doi.org/10.1108/MD-10-2022-1462