Bayesian A/B Inference

Abstract

Bayesian A/B inference (BABI) is a method that combines subjective prior information with data from A/B experiments to provide inference for lift – the difference in a measure of response in control and treatment, expressed as its ratio to the measure of response in control. The procedure is embedded in stable code that can be executed in a few seconds for an experiment, regardless of sample size, and caters to the objectives and technical background of the owners of experiments. BABI provides more powerful tests of the hypothesis of the impact of treatment on lift, and sharper conclusions about the value of lift, than do legacy conventional methods. In application to 21 large online experiments, the credible interval is 60% to 65% shorter than the conventional confidence interval in the median case, and by close to 100% in a significant proportion of cases; in rare cases, BABI credible intervals are longer than conventional confidence intervals and then by no more than about 10%.

Citation

Geweke, J. (2019), "Bayesian A/B Inference", Topics in Identification, Limited Dependent Variables, Partial Observability, Experimentation, and Flexible Modeling: Part B (Advances in Econometrics, Vol. 40B), Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 111-140. https://doi.org/10.1108/S0731-90532019000040B007