Make-to-order product demand forecasting: Exponential smoothing models with neural network correction

Abstract

Demand forecasting has long been an imperative tenet in production planning especially in a make-to-order environment where a typical manufacturer has to balance the issues of holding excessive safety stocks and experiencing possible stockout. Many studies provide pragmatic paradigms to generate demand forecasts (mainly based on smoothing forecasting models.) At the same time, artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been emerging as alternatives. In this chapter, we propose a two-stage forecasting approach, which combines the strengths of a neural network with a more conventional exponential smoothing model. In the first stage of this approach, a smoothing model estimates the series of demand forecasts. In the second stage, general regression neural network (GRNN) is applied to learn and then correct the errors of estimates. Our empirical study evaluates the use of different static and dynamic smoothing models and calibrates their synergies with GRNN. Various statistical tests are performed to compare the performances of the two-stage models (with error correction by neural network) and those of the original single-stage models (without error-correction by neural network). Comparisons with the single-stage GRNN are also included. Statistical results show that neural network correction leads to improvements to the forecasts made by all examined smoothing models and can outperform the single-stage GRNN in most cases. Relative performances at different levels of demand lumpiness are also examined.

Citation

Leung, M.T., Quintana, R. and Chen, A.-S. (2009), "Make-to-order product demand forecasting: Exponential smoothing models with neural network correction", Lawrence, K.D. and Klimberg, R.K. (Ed.) Advances in Business and Management Forecasting (Advances in Business and Management Forecasting, Vol. 6), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 249-266. https://doi.org/10.1108/S1477-4070(2009)0000006015