Rethinking Augustine’s Law: Armament Costs and Evolving Military Technology

Abstract

Using long-run trend data for US tactical and bomber aircraft, Norman Augustine’s Law 16 famously suggests continuously rising US armament unit costs. By the year 2054, the country’s entire defence budget would be expended on a single aircraft, which an industry colleague dubbed as the Battlestar Galactica. However, while it is thought provoking, what does Law 16 in fact entail? It appears that the mechanics of Augustine’s ‘Law’ has never been examined in detail. To help disentangle the matter and assess its relevance in the context of today’s battlefield technology, which is increasingly focussed on the application of large numbers of small, cheap, expendable, electronically linked, yet highly autonomous systems, this chapter introduces the concept of an Augustine weapons system.

Citation

Brauer, J., Hartley, K. and Markowski, S. (2021), "Rethinking Augustine’s Law: Armament Costs and Evolving Military Technology", Chatterji, M. and Gangopadhyay, P. (Ed.) New Frontiers in Conflict Management and Peace Economics: With a Focus on Human Security (Contributions to Conflict Management, Peace Economics and Development, Vol. 29), Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1108/S1572-832320210000029001