Geospatial modeling of climate change indices at Mexico City using machine learning regression

Abstract

Purpose

Climate change is a problem that concerns all of us. Despite the information produced by organizations such as the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices and the United Nations, only a few cities have been planned taking into account the climate changes indices. This paper aims to study climatic variations, how climate conditions might change in the future and how these changes will affect the activities and living conditions in cities, specifically focusing on Mexico city.

Design/methodology/approach

In this approach, two distinct machine learning regression models, k-Nearest Neighbors and Support Vector Regression, were used to predict variations in climate change indices within select urban areas of Mexico city. The calculated indices are based on maximum, minimum and average temperature data collected from the National Water Commission in Mexico and the Scientific Research Center of Ensenada. The methodology involves pre-processing temperature data to create a training data set for regression algorithms. It then computes predictions for each temperature parameter and ultimately assesses the performance of these algorithms based on precision metrics scores.

Findings

This paper combines a geospatial perspective with computational tools and machine learning algorithms. Among the two regression algorithms used, it was observed that k-Nearest Neighbors produced superior results, achieving an R² score of 0.99, in contrast to Support Vector Regression, which yielded an R² score of 0.74.

Originality/value

The full potential of machine learning algorithms has not been fully harnessed for predicting climate indices. This paper also identifies the strengths and weaknesses of each algorithm and how the generated estimations can then be considered in the decision-making process.

Citation

Saldana-Perez, M., Guzmán, G., Palma-Preciado, C., Argüelles-Cruz, A. and Moreno-Ibarra, M. (2024), "Geospatial modeling of climate change indices at Mexico City using machine learning regression", Transforming Government: People, Process and Policy, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://doi.org/10.1108/TG-10-2023-0153