Development of a long-term solar PV power forecasting model for power system planning

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to Solar photovoltaic (PV) power can significantly impact the power system because of its intermittent nature. Hence, an accurate solar PV power forecasting model is required for appropriate power system planning.

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, a long short-term memory (LSTM)-based double deep Q-learning (DDQL) neural network (NN) is proposed for forecasting solar PV power indirectly over the long-term horizon. The past solar irradiance, temperature and wind speed are used for forecasting the solar PV power for a place using the proposed forecasting model.

Findings

The LSTM-based DDQL NN reduces over- and underestimation and avoids gradient vanishing. Thus, the proposed model improves the forecasting accuracy of solar PV power using deep learning techniques (DLTs). In addition, the proposed model requires less training time and forecasts solar PV power with improved stability.

Originality/value

The proposed model is trained and validated for several places with different climatic patterns and seasons. The proposed model is also tested for a place with a temperate climatic pattern by constructing an experimental solar PV system. The training, validation and testing results have confirmed the practicality of the proposed solar PV power forecasting model using LSTM-based DDQL NN.

Citation

P.R., J.V., K., N.S., T., V., A., J.G. and Arunachalam, V. (2024), "Development of a long-term solar PV power forecasting model for power system planning", World Journal of Engineering, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://doi.org/10.1108/WJE-09-2023-0407